With Israeli leaders vowing to strike back strongly against Iran for Tuesday’s massive missile barrage, the world awaits Jerusalem’s response. Fears are growing that continued escalation on both sides could lead to an all-out war in the region and possibly drag the U.S. into the fray.
As we noted earlier today, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army said there will be retribution.
“We will respond, we know how to locate important targets, we know how to strike with precision and power,” said Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi. “We have the capabilities to reach and strike any point in the Middle East. And those of our enemies who have not yet understood this, will soon understand.”
On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran would “pay for” the attack, which officials claim caused minimal damage.
“The regime of Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves,” Netanyahu said in a statement delivered shortly after the attack, which came on the eve Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. “They will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: Whoever attacks, we will attack them.”
Many Israeli officials “point to Iran’s oil facilities as a likely target, but some say targeted assassinations and taking out Iran’s air defense systems are also possibilities,” Axios reported. “The Israeli response could include airstrikes from fighter jets as well as clandestine operations similar to the one that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two months ago.” This largely matches our analysis from yesterday.
Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, said his country’s next response will be “even more devastating” should Israel retaliate.
Maj. Gen. Sayyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s Army, said his forces “will respond more harshly” to any Israeli retaliation and may “decide to destroy their infrastructure.” Iran claims they only targeted military and national security targets with their previous missile barrage.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden said he does not approve of any Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, “signaling a renewed effort by his administration to seek restraint from Israel in the hopes of avoiding a wider, regional war in the Middle East,” The New. York Times reported.
Biden told reporters that leaders of the Group of 7 countries had agreed in a call Wednesday morning to impose new sanctions on Iran and agreed that Israel had the right to respond to Iran’s military assault.
Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesman, said the United States continues discussions with Israel on its looming response, the Times reported. “But ultimately, it’s up to them — as it is for any sovereign country — to make their own decisions.”
There is also a concern that the U.S., with 40,000 troops in the region, could become involved should any of its naval, air, or ground forces come under attack.
The U.S. has bolstered its presence in the Middle East since the Oct. 7, 2023 surprise Hamas attack on Israel that killed about 1,200 Israelis. Tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza have been killed in Israel’s ensuing response.
One open-source intelligence researcher offered a breakdown of the various missiles on Twitter based on videos of the strikes and images of the recovered missile remains. Among them were Kheiber Shekan medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM). It is a two-stage, solid-propellant, vehicle-launched MRBM that Iran first unveiled on Feb. 9, 2022. A third generation of the Fateh family of ballistic missiles, Iran claims it has a maximum range of 1,450 kilometers (900 miles). It was first used in combat in January, which you can read more about in our report here.
Israeli citizens walked around the booster of one of those ballistic missiles.
Israelis also encountered a largely intact Iranian ballistic missile booster in the Negev desert, some 700 miles west of Iran. These components will likely prove valuable for intelligence personnel that keep a close eye on Iran’s missile and rocket programs.
Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, said that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) chose Mossad headquarters, Nevatim Airbase, and Hatzerim Airbase as the primary targets in Tuesday’s attack
“The first was chosen because the spy center has been found responsible for several assassinations, the second because F-35 jet fighters are stationed there, and the third because it was used to assassinate Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in a devastating attack in Beirut on Friday,” he said, according to the official Iranian news outlet Press TV.
Meanwhile, three days into Israel’s limited ground invasion of southern Lebanon, its troops have engaged in “close-range” combat with Hezbollah forces, both sides say. So far, at least eight Israeli soldiers have been killed in the fighting, according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).
The IDF did not say how those troops died, but most of the casualties took place in the eastern sector of southern Lebanon, according to a Twitter dispatch from the Israeli YNET media outlet.
A half-dozen Israeli troops were killed and 30 more wounded in a battle in a Lebanese village, according to YNET reporter Yoav Zitun.
The village, which he didn’t name, was struck 650 times in the past months by Israeli forces in anticipation of a looming ground incursion, Zitun stated. The casualties occurred after Israeli forces ambushed Hezbollah fighters in a building “during heavy fog…and in total darkness.”
An assault “by dozens of [Hezbollah] terrorists began from every direction and in poor visibility with low cloud cover that made it difficult for air cover,” Zitun explained. “That was followed by “a barrage of anti-tank and paramilitary fire on the rescue forces that arrived to evacuate the first victims.”
Zitun claims that 30 Hezbollah fighters were killed in that battle, another 30 wounded and 50 killed overall since the start of the invasion.
“Fighting is expected to intensify,” he posited.
Hezbollah said in one battle, it detonated “a pre-prepared explosive device by an Israeli force that infiltrated a house in the outskirts of the town of Kfar Kila, then rained a barrage of machine guns and rockets on it, killing and wounding its members,” the Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen Telegram channel claimed. It did not offer any details on the casualty count.
In another fight, Hezbollah said it detonated an explosive device on Israeli forces as they were “trying to bypass the town of Yaroun from the forest side,” according to Al Mayadeen. An unspecified number of Israeli troops were killed and injured, the outlet claimed.
The War Zone cannot independently confirm these claims. Video emerged on social media showing Israeli helicopters evacuating casualties from the Lebanese border village of Adaisseh, where Hezbollah reportedly claimed to have staged an ambush today.
.
To help bolster its fight against Hezbollah, the IDF said the 36th Division, including soldiers of the Golani Brigade, 188th Armored Brigade, 6th Infantry Brigade, and additional forces are joining troops already in Lebanon.
The death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s in an Israeli air strike on Sept. 27 has “prompted Iranian authorities to thoroughly investigate possible infiltrations within Iran’s own ranks, from the powerful Revolutionary Guards to senior security officials, a second senior Iranian official said,” according to Reuters. “They are especially focused on those who travel abroad or have relatives living outside Iran, the first official said.”
“Tehran grew suspicious of certain members of the Guards who had been traveling to Lebanon,” said a source, according to Reuters. “Concerns were raised when one of these individuals began asking about Nasrallah’s whereabouts, particularly inquiring about how long he would remain in specific locations, the official added.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “no longer trusts anyone,” Reuters added, citing a source “who is close to Iran’s establishment.”
Speaking of assassinations, the IDF announced on Tuesday it “killed the commander of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is tasked with delivering weapons from Iran and its proxies to Lebanon in its latest strike targeting the terror group’s top leadership,” the Times of Israel reported.
Muhammad Ja’far Kasir “was killed in a strike carried out by fighter jets in Beirut, according to the military,” the publication stated.
The IDF said that it “also killed the commander of the Imam Hossein Division, an Iranian militia which operates alongside Hezbollah, in the same strike,” the Times of Israel added. “The military named the commander as Daw Alfakher Hinaw.”
Israel also took out Nasrallah’s son-in-law Hassan Qassir in an airstrike in Damascus.
As of 7 PM Eastern, which is 2 AM Tel Aviv time, there has been no Israeli retaliation toward Iran. After Iran delivered its first direct attack against Israel in April, Jerusalem responded with limited missile strikes but none against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The question about how Israel reacts this time will likely be answered in the coming hours.
We will continue to monitor this situation and provide updates.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com