Ukraine’s defenses in the Donetsk region are continuing to crumble. In the past week alone, the Russians have gained more land than at any point this year.
“The gain of more than 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) adds to territory taken in a grinding summer offensive that’s involved huge losses of Russian troops and equipment,” Bloomberg News reported, citing maps compiled by the DeepState open-source intelligence group’s map service maintained in cooperation with the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. “Russia has captured 1,146 square kilometers in Ukraine since Aug. 6, about a quarter more than in the first seven months of the year.”
The Russians are chewing up large chunks of Donetsk in a move to capture the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk which could lead to a further breakout west toward Dnipropetrovsk and south toward Zaporizhia.
Having captured the town of Selydovo earlier this week – its biggest regional prize since seizing Avdiikva – Russian forces are now pushing toward Kurakhov. Sitting astride the N-15 highway, the settlement is just south of a mile-wide stretch of the Vovcha River and supports the movement of troops and materiel in the region. As such, it is a bulwark on a Russian advance toward Pokrovsk about 20 miles to the north.
Russian forces are now less than three miles from Kurakhov, according to DeepState. Control of that city is key to a pocket of Ukrainian-held territory that Russia is pushing toward from the north, east and south.
A Russian mechanized column “has already pushed into the city’s eastern outskirts..,” the independent Russian Meduza media outlet reported. “Additional Russian units are pressing in from the north (from the direction of Selydove), and from the south (from the direction of Vuhledar),” which as we previously reported was captured early last month.
“Ukrainian defenses to the south of the city appear especially weak,” Meduza added. “After a chaotic retreat from Vuhledar, the brigades seem worn out, and even reinforcements sent from Zaporizhzhia haven’t been enough to help.”
As Meduza and other media outlets have noted, the advances “are not without [Russian] equipment losses along the way.”
Defenders managed to hold the encroachment at bay in part because of a line of dragon’s teeth that impeded the Russians, according to the Ukrainian Militarnyi outlet.
A Russian armored convoy tried to break through this line of fortifications, but Ukrainian paratroopers of the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade stopped it, the outlet reported, citing the brigade’s Telegram channel. The Russians were trying to bypass the road through a field from occupied Maksymilianivka towards Kurakhov.
The brigade claimed that four Russian armored vehicles and two tanks in the assault were destroyed by “artillery fire, FPV-drones, and remote-mining means.”
Still, the defense of Kurakov is becoming increasingly difficult.
“The situation is really tense,” Orest Drymalovsky, a representative of the press service of Ukraine’s 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade said on national television, according to Radio Liberty’s Telegram. “The enemy is trying to probe our defense every day. Every day they strike, every day they attack to break through the defense of the 79th Brigade and to encircle the city of Kurakhov even deeper.”
Drmyalovsky added that the Russians “are sending entire columns of equipment and personnel in the direction of the village of Konstantinovka near Kurakhov, and they are not sparing either soldiers or equipment.”
“Apparently, it is very important for the occupiers to straighten the front line in the Kurakhov direction, to push through the defense of the 79th Paratroopers in the area of the villages of Konstantinovka, Antonovka, Yekaterinovka, where the enemy has not had success for a long time,” Drymalovskiy noted about settlements less than seven miles south of Kurakhove. “And without this success, the occupiers will not be able to advance closer to the city of Kurakhov.”
Russian sources, however, claim that at least part of that area has been captured.
Ukraine “has been knocked out” of Ilyinka,” according to noted Russian milblogger Yuriy Podolyak. That is a small settlement less than a half-mile north of Yekaterinovka.
“We are waiting for confirmation,” he added. “What a great day. Kurakhov is quickly losing its significance for Ukraine.”
“According to preliminary information, Ilyinka and Stepanovka have been liberated by the Russian Army as part of the Russian Armed Forces’ advance north of Kurakhov,” the Russian Warrior Kitten Telegram channel posited.
Despite the Russian claims, the latest DeepState map shows that all five of those towns remain in Ukrainian hands.
“Fighting in the Kurakhov direction continues,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff stated on Facebook. Near “Ostrivsky, Illinka, Novoselidivka, Kremínnoí̈ Balka, Novodmitrivka, Vovchenko, Maximilyanivka, Dalnyi, Antonivka and Katerinivka, 24 combat clashes took place during the day, 13 attacks by the occupiers are ongoing.”
Regardless of exactly where Russian troops are on the southern end of their push toward Kurakhov, their objective of taking the town appears to be gaining traction. Its fall would mark the latest in a string of defeats Ukraine has experienced in Donetsk against an increasingly overwhelming adversary that is willing to sacrifice large amounts of troops and equipment in the process.
The Russian push is not limited to Pokrovsk. It is attacking all across Donetsk to press its advantage in personnel. Moscow is recruiting about 30,000 troops a month, according to The Economist, citing a NATO official.
“That is less than government targets, but is still enough to cover even the gargantuan losses of recent months,” the publication noted.
In addition to increasing the number of its own troops, Russia is seeing an influx of North Korean soldiers. As Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told us, there are some 12,000 North Korean troops in Russia, a figure that we noted could expand. Of those, about 7,200 are now in Kursk, Budanov told The War Zone on Friday. It is unclear at the moment how many North Korean troops might be sent into Ukraine or if more might be sent to bolster Russia’s fight.
Ukraine too is seeking to quickly bolster its forces.
“A further 160,000 people are to be drafted into the Ukrainian armed forces, which will raise the manning of units to 85%, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko said on Oct. 29 during a session of the Ukrainian parliament,” the Kyiv Independent reported.
Ukraine’s parliament adopted an updated mobilization law in mid-April to ramp up mobilization amid Russia’s ongoing war, according to the outlet.
“The new law simplifies the process for identifying eligible conscripts and includes additional penalties for those dodging the draft. According to Lytvynenko, 1,000,050 citizens have been drafted into the military so far since the beginning of martial law.”
With the speed and scope of this push picking up, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has increased the urgency of his complaints about Western support.
“Ukraine has received only 10% of the aid package approved by the U.S. Congress in 2024,” he said. “This isn’t funny. The issue isn’t money, it’s bureaucracy and logistics.”
The coming days of rain and mud will make maneuver across the open plains of this region much more difficult, adding to the importance of taking Kurahkov and the tactically significant east-west highway it straddles.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com