As Ukrainian forces mount a new offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday said that success in this region would improve Kyiv’s bargaining position in any future ceasefire negotiations. This new effort takes place as Donald Trump is set to return to the White House in two weeks, giving both sides an increasing sense of urgency to gain ground ahead of any future bargaining the new administration might undertake. Ukraine’s renewed effort in Kursk also comes as Russia, which claimed it captured a key village in eastern Ukraine, continues to gain ground there.
“…the Ukrainians themselves are trying to make sure that they have that strong hand,” Blinken told reporters in Seoul, South Korea on Monday. “Their position in Kursk is an important one, because certainly it’s something that would factor into any negotiation that may come about in the coming year.”
His assessment mirrors what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said back in September about Kursk being a “bargaining chip.”
Ukraine first invaded Kursk in August but after initial success there, lost about half the territory it gained. It is unclear how much ground Ukraine has gained in the new Kursk offensive.
Initial indications were that Ukraine’s surprise attack achieved some early success. However, the Russian Defense Ministry and Russian Telegram channels suggest that Ukraine’s advances have been blunted. The War Zone cannot independently verify these battlefield claims.
The new Ukrainian offensive has pushed out in at least three directions, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in its latest assessment. Kyiv’s forces have pushed east and southeast of Sudzha, its main base of operations in Kursk, while also advancing northwest toward the town of Korenevo.
Ukrainian forces “made tactical advances on January 5,” ISW noted. “Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted multiple roughly company-sized mechanized assaults in the Berdin-Novosotnitsky direction (northeast of Sudzha) in three waves of attack using roughly a battalion’s worth of armored vehicles. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also intensified offensive operations in the direction of Leonidovo (southeast of Korenevo) and conducted a reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault near Pushkarnoye (east of Sudzha).”
Geolocated footage published on Jan. 5 indicated that Ukrainian forces “advanced in fields southwest and south of Berdin and entered the southern part of the settlement,” ISW maintained.
There is also evidence Ukraine is resuming its effort to trap Russian troops ensconced south of the Seim River by attacking near the town of Tetkino, the Russian Rybar Telegram channel suggested.
Russian forces, however, also gained some ground in a counterattack, ISW posited.
“Russian forces also advanced southeast of Sudzha and counterattacked against intensified Ukrainian attacks southeast of Korenevo and north of Sudzha on January 5,” ISW stated. “Geolocated footage published on January 5 shows that Russian forces advanced in western and southern Makhnovka (just southeast of Sudzha).”
The Ukrainian offensive was aided by long-range fires, electronic warfare and columns led by IMR armored breaching vehicles, according to Russian Telegram channels.
“To break through, the Ukrainian Armed Forces covered the area with powerful electronic warfare systems, making it difficult for our UAVs to operate,” Operation Z suggested. “It is expected that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may attack in other areas as well.”
“The enemy uses IMRs, clears roads and drives in armored fighting vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles,” the Two Majors Telegram channel claimed.
“Widespread Russian concern over Russia’s ability to respond to improved Ukrainian EW technology and long-range strike capabilities indicates that Russian forces may be struggling to quickly adapt to Ukrainian battlefield innovations,” ISW reported. “Reports that Ukrainian forces are using long-range fires to interdict Russian rear areas and EW to degrade Russian drones in support of Ukrainian mechanized advances indicate that Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk are employing more effective combined arms tactics.”
In his evening address on Monday, Zelensky claimed Russia has taken heavy losses in Kursk.
“Today marks exactly five months since the start of our actions in the Kursk region, and we continue to maintain a buffer zone on Russian territory, actively destroying Russian military potential there,” he said. “Since the beginning of the Kursk operation, the enemy has already lost over 38,000 troops in this area alone, including approximately 15,000 irrecoverable losses. The Russians have deployed their strong units to the Kursk region. Soldiers from North Korea are involved there. What’s important is that the occupier cannot currently redirect all this force to other directions, in particular the Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, or Zaporizhzhia regions.”
Meanwhile, the Russian MoD claimed it had halted Ukrainian advances.
“The attempt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through was thwarted by the decisive actions of the Sever Group of Forces’ units supported by aviation and artillery,” the MoD stated on Telegram Monday. “As a result of the fire damage, the enemy’s main forces were neutralized on the outskirts of Berdin area.”
As we have previously reported, Russia’s defense of Kursk has been aided by the influx of about 12,000 North Korean troops. So far, nearly a third of those troops have been killed or wounded, Zelensky told American podcaster Lex Fridman in a wide-ranging interview that aired Saturday.
On Monday, Blinken doubled down on the Biden administration’s assertions that there is a quid pro quo between Moscow and Pyongyang taking place, an arrangement we have written about in the past.
“What we’re seeing is not only the provision of artillery, ammunition, and troops by North Korea to Russia – forced aggression against Ukraine – but we are seeing collaboration, support coming in the other direction,” Blinken avowed. “Russia is already providing military equipment to the DPRK. It’s providing training. We believe that it has the intent to share space and satellite technology with the DPRK, and that concern is very much a focus that not only the United States but also the Republic of Korea and Japan are bringing to bear – and very much part of our conversations.”
Ukraine’s new Kursk push comes as Russia claims it captured the tactically important eastern Ukrainian town of Kurakhove in the Donetsk region.
Sitting astride the N-15 highway, the settlement is just south of a mile-wide stretch of the Vovcha River and supports the movement of troops and materiel in the region. As such, it is a bulwark on a Russian advance toward Pokrovsk about 20 miles to the north.
Ukraine’s military command in the east did not comment on the Russian claim that Kurakhove had fallen. However, “soldiers fighting in the area, and a local Ukrainian military official, said when reached by phone that while there were pockets of resistance in the factories on the outskirts, the town was essentially lost,” The New York Times reported.
The battles in Kursk and Kurakove played out against the backdrop of the looming presidency of Trump, who has promised to quickly end the war. Though the president-elect has yet to provide any specifics, Zelensky said he is confident Trump can deliver on that pledge.
“I now see that when I talk about something with Donald Trump, whether we meet in person or we just have a call, all the European leaders always ask, how was it?” Zelensky said during his three-hour podcast interview with Fridman. “This shows the influence of Donald Trump, and this has never happened before with an American president, I tell you, from my experience, this also gives you confidence, you know, that he can stop this war.”
There is another factor in play, Zelensky added.
Fear.
Trump “can stop” Russian President Vladimir Putin “because Putin is afraid of him,” Zelensky explained. “And that’s a fact.”
Both sides seem to be operating on the basis of information leaked suggesting Trump may seek a frozen front line as it exists, with European troops in Ukraine creating a buffer zone between the two warring parties and Ukraine holding off on joining NATO for 20 years. You can read more about that in our deep dive here.
Russia is not amenable to that, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained last month.
“Judging from numerous leaks and Donald Trump’s interview with Time magazine on Dec. 12, their idea is to suspend hostilities along the line of contact and transfer responsibility for confrontation with Russia to the Europeans,” Lavrov told the Russian official TASS news outlet. “We are not happy, of course, with the proposals made by members of the Trump team to postpone Ukraine’s admission to NATO for 20 years and to station British and European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.”
We will learn more in the coming days about the success of Zelensky’s latest Kursk gambit and whether any increased deployment of troops and equipment there further weakens his forces’ defense of the east. Beginning Jan. 20, when Trump is inaugurated, both sides will learn more about what he will do to try and end this full-on war, nearing its third anniversary.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com