Despite Russia pouring in reinforcements to counter the now eight-day-old invasion of Kursk, Ukraine is continuing to try and expand its footprint there, pushing to the north and west.
Ukrainian forces have “opened new fronts in the western part of Kursk Oblast near Slobodka-Ivanovka, Tetkino, Gordeevka, Uspenka, and Viktorovka, taking control of Slobodka-Ivanovka, Uspenovka, Viktorovka, and Spalnoe,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies think tank stated on Tuesday.
In anticipation of this effort, however, Ukraine tried to blow up a bridge over the Seim River to halt Russia’s logistics to that area, according to the Russian Two Majors Telegram channel.
While these claims are unconfirmed, Russian milbloggers concur that Ukrainian forces continue to push toward those areas.
“In the border area of Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian troops continue their attempts to advance northward toward Kurchatov,” the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel stated.
It also suggested Ukraine was eyeing a Western expansion of its operation.
“In the afternoon, information appeared about a massive shelling of Tetkino by artillery,” Rybar stated in an earlier post. “Given the pattern of enemy actions, the probability of opening another section of the front is still not zero.”
The Institute for the Study of War suggests that the invasion is proceeding further and faster than many Russian milbloggers have claimed.
Visual evidence is emerging that Ukraine is flying around the Sumy-Kursk border and has launched airstrikes in Kursk, a sign that its air force feels comfortable that Russian air defenses are well suppressed in the general area.
“Ukrainian formations are using aircraft to strike the border area,” Rybar said, claiming that “the use of JDAM-ER guided bombs against a local grain storage facility in Tetkino has been noted.” The War Zone cannot independently verify that claim.
Adding to Ukraine’s aviation strike capabilities, it appears that the U.K. has not permitted Kyiv to use donated Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles in its Kursk invasion. The weapons that can reach out over hundreds of miles, would greatly enhance Ukraine’s ability to strike deeper into Kursk from standoff distances. You can read more about the Storm Shadow in our deep dive here.
Meanwhile, a day after Ukraine finally opened up the informational spigot by proclaiming his troops captured nearly 400 square miles of Russian territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky showcased another conversation about the situation with his top commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi.
“Despite the difficult and intense battles, our forces continue to advance in the Kursk region, and our state’s ‘exchange fund is growing,'” he said, a reference to the increasing flow of Russian prisoners of war who could be traded for Ukrainian ones. So far, “74 communities are under Ukrainian control, where inspections and stabilization measures are being carried out. The development of humanitarian solutions for these territories continues.”
As it has every day since the invasion began on Aug. 6, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed it has the situation under control.
“The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to repel the [Armed Forces of Ukraine] AFU attempt to invade the territory of the Russian Federation,” the Russian MoD claimed on Telegram.
“Over the past 24 hours, active actions of the Sever Group of Forces and arrived reserves, army aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles, and artillery fire prevented enemy mobile armored groups from forging deep into the Russian territory close to Obshchiy Kolodez, Snagost, Kauchuk, and Alekseyevsky,” the Russian MoD claimed.
“An attack launched by the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Martynovka has been repelled. Up to 15 AFU personnel, two armored fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles were neutralized,” the Russian MoD stated. In addition, “aviation and artillery strikes hit manpower and hardware of 22nd, 61st, 115th Mechanized brigades, and 80th Airborne Assault Brigade close to Mikhailovka, Korenevo, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Oleshni, Sudzha, and Nikolayevka.”
Despite that rosy outlook, authorities have evacuated more than 100,000 Kursk residents.
Russia failed to stop the Ukrainian invasion despite being warned months ahead of time that it was likely, a former Russian reconnaissance group commander claimed in a recent interview with the Russian Interesting Stories publication.
After months of small-scale incursions by groups like the Freedom of Russia Legion designed largely to gather intelligence about Russian defenses, Ukraine launched a major invasion at a vulnerable location, striking as quickly and deeply as possible, the group commander said.
The situation in Kursk forced Russia to make a significant change in the leadership of its defense of the region, placing former Putin bodyguard and current Colonel-General Alexei Dyumin as the new head of operations there.
The move was warmly received by prominent Russian milbloggers, who suggested that the appointment was a sign that Putin finally realized how disastrous Kusk had become.
“Alexei Dyumin as a senior official with a full range of powers to resolve the operational crisis in the Kursk region is a sign that the security forces have been unable to resolve the coordination problems on their own and without intervention from Moscow,” the Two Majors Telegram channel stated on Tuesday. “Dyumin’s appointment is Putin’s team taking full control of the situation in order to stop the window dressing and also to start solving the problem, rather than trying to freeze it.”
Alexander Sladkov, a military correspondent with Russia’s official Izvestia news outlet, also lauded the pick.
“This is great,” he exclaimed on Telegram. “And I categorically welcome this.”
“Dyumin is a military man, respected in the army and in the special services. He will quickly get into the subject and begin making important decisions,” Gladkov posited.
He “is Putin’s man, he will not allow the president to be deceived in reports to himself or others,” Gladkov added. “Dyumin was recently a brilliant governor, he will take into account in his actions the needs of not only the military but also civilians of the Kursk region.”
Dyumin “will certainly arrive in Kursk with extraordinary plenipotentiary powers,” said Gladkov. “And this is excellent, the situation is extraordinary.”
In an effort to avoid Ukrainian jamming, Russia began using fiber optic cables to control its first-person view (FPV) drones in the Kursk region. Images of downed Russian kamikaze drones with those cables began to emerge in March. You can read much more about this technique in our deep dive here.
Though Russia continues to face struggles in Kursk and Belgorod, the citizens of Ukraine’s neighboring Sumy Oblast are feeling increased effects from the effort.
Sumy, which has been a staging ground for the invasion, is facing increased attacks from Russia. As a result, there have been evacuations and Ukrainian authorities have declared a level of martial law on the oblast.
“Due to the increase in the intensity of combat, the activation of diversion intelligence groups, the special operations forces of the enemy, and with the purpose of preserving the lives of the civilian population and military personnel, the military command has introduced restrictions on the movement of all categories of citizens in the 20-kilometer border zone of Sumy region,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff announced Tuesday on Facebook.
Every day Ukraine remains in Russia adds pressure on Putin to take more drastic actions. He’s already had his government declare martial law in Kursk, as well as neighboring Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts. Yesterday, he promised that Ukraine “will receive a worthy response, all the goals facing Russia will be achieved.”
Whatever that is, or if it will materialize at all, only time will tell.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com