Ukraine for the first time provided details of its invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy telling President Volodymyr Zelensky that his troops have captured about 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of territory so far in the seven-day-old operation.
Syrskiy delivered those remarks in a video posted Monday afternoon Eastern time on Zelensky’s Telegram channel.
“We are grateful to all soldiers and commanders for their steadfastness and decisive actions,” Zelensky said.
Though Ukrainian forces are continuing to expand the territory they are fighting over, the toll on troops and equipment is increasing as Russia continues to pour reinforcements into the region and block several Ukrainian attempts to advance deeper. Ukraine has also launched an incursion into Belgorod Oblast, immediately abutting Kursk, however, it appears to be far less expansive or intense.
Meanwhile, as Ukraine creeps toward the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, a fire broke out at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine.
Zelensky said Russian forces had started a fire at the plant, which has been occupied by Moscow’s forces for more than two years. Zaporizhzhia’s Kremlin-installed governor said Ukrainian shelling caused the blaze, BBC reported.
In the wake of Kyiv’s invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there would be no peace negotiations and that Ukraine “will receive a worthy response, all the goals facing Russia will be achieved.” He did not elaborate. He also vowed to push Ukrainian forces out of Russia.
Putin insisted that Russia is being attacked by Western forces
“Kyiv is fulfilling the will of its Western masters; the West is fighting Russia with the hands of Ukrainians,” Putin said, TASS reported on Telegram.
An Akhmat commander expressed a similar view, claiming without proof that there are French and Polish troops fighting on behalf of Ukraine.
The initial attacks were swift, catching Russians by surprise.
The poorly equipped Russian border guards initially defending the oblast took heavy casualties.
By contrast, the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) stated that the Akhmat forces belonging to Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov managed a strategic withdrawal, avoiding deaths, injuries, or capture.
Despite Syrskiy’s comments, the Russian MoD has repeatedly claimed they’ve thwarted Ukraine’s invasion every day since it began. However, the area being contested has actually expanded, according to an analysis of Russian MoD statements by the independent Russian Agentsvo news outlet.
Ukraine is fighting with troops backed by armor as well as in much smaller sabotage and reconnaissance units.
Agentsvo offered a smaller Ukrainian footprint in Kurs than Syrskiy, saying Kyiv’s forces are fighting in about 720 square kilometers there.
The furthest point of the Ukrainian advance reached the town of Obshchy Kolodez about 18 miles north of the border, Agentsvo stated. The westernmost area of fighting has taken place in Tolpino, 10 miles southwest, and the easternmost point in the village of Martynovka, about 20 miles southwest.
Aside from ground attacks, Ukrainian Defense Forces “launched a combined missile and air strike on the Kursk-Vostochny airbase, where the 14th Fighter Aviation Regiment and the 332nd Helicopter Regiment are based,” according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies. “Another missile strike targeted a forward concentration area of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet.”
Drones, as they have throughout this war, are playing a big role in Ukraine’s advances.
Some Russian troops were more fortunate, able to shoot down an approaching Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drone before it could cause any damage.
Russia has blunted several Ukrainian attempts to advance, but Ukraine is pushing around obstacles, the Finland-based Black Bird Group open-source investigation organization told The War Zone on Monday.
“In Kursk, Russia has been able to reinforce the most crucial points and halt Ukrainian operations,” Black Bird Group analyst Emil Kastehelmi told us.
However, despite Russian reinforcements, “they haven’t been able to block all areas of advance yet,” Kastehelmi added. “For example, we’ve seen a Ukrainian APC detachment fighting near Belitsa, inside the village of Giri. The Russians are still in a situation where they have to prioritize some of the most central areas, and there isn’t a clear frontline yet, at least in all directions.”
In example of how difficult it is to assess what’s going on, Russian sources claimed that a BTR-4 seen in GIri was actually Akhmat forces joy riding in the vehicle they captured. The armored vehicle is one of many Ukraine used to invade Kursk.
At the moment Ukrainian units “are operating east of Korenevo, with the possible goal of creating a flank threat,” Kastehelmi explained. ”There is a lot of so-called gray area – Ukraine likely doesn’t have a solid control of the Olgovka-Gavrilovka-area, but neither does Russia. There are a lot of uncertainties, as Ukraine tries to keep up the momentum and element of surprise before more Russian reserves arrive.”
Ukraine also claimed to have entered the town of Sverdilkovo and took down a Russian flag there.
Ukraine “still has some momentum, even though some operationally important towns, mainly Korenevo and Sudzha (and Mirnyi) weren’t taken as quickly as would have been desirable for a swift continuation of the offensive,” Kastehelmi expounded. “A lot depends on how many units Ukraine is ready to commit to the operation and if they want to try, for example, to open up other directions to support the current effort. One such direction could be an attack towards Rylsk from Hlukhiv.”
“We are going deeper,” one Ukrainian soldier told Financial Times, adding that despite Russian reinforcements, Kyiv’s forces still had the upper hand.
Visual evidence emerged of damage to Gazprom’s transfer station in Sudzha. The station is “the last operational trans-shipping point for Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine, according to Reuters. About half of Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe go through Ukraine, the outlet reported.
“In December 2019, Moscow and Kyiv signed a long-term five-year agreement for the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine: 45 bcm in 2020 and 40 bcm per year in 2021-2024,” according to Reuters. “The agreement on Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukraine expires in 2024, and Kyiv has said it has no intention of extending it or concluding a new deal.”
Ukraine claims control over the town, which was one of the first targets of the invasion, though fighting there continued for days.
Despite the damage though, gas is still flowing. Still, Gazprom spokesman Sergey Kupriyanov said that the fighting that broke out has already drastically affected the prices of natural and liquefied gas, which have risen sharply, according to the official Russian TASS news agency.
Ukraine reportedly turned the tables on a Russian ambush attempt. Instead of being destroyed, the Ukrainian troops instead fired on the Russian troops, destroying their equipment.
All this comes at an increasing price for Ukraine.
Firm numbers on casualties and equipment losses are impossible to come by. However, a recent visit by The Economist to a hospital in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast across the border from the fighting suggests the toll on troops is increasing.
“…accounts from Ukraine’s wounded suggest [the invasion] has not been a walk in the park, and remains risky,” the publication reported after interviewing several wounded troops.
There is also increasing visual evidence of equipment losses in this operation.
In a sign of its logistic abilities inside Russia, Ukraine has also recovered vehicles damaged in the fighting.
Russia too is paying a heavy price for this invasion.
“As of today, 28 settlements are under enemy control, the depth of penetration into the territory of the Kursk region is 12 kilometers, and the front’s width is 40 kilometers,” acting Kursk governor Alexei Smirnov told Putin on Monday.
So far, 12 civilians have been killed and 121 others, including 10 children, have been wounded, Smirnov claimed. About 121,000 people have been evacuated or left the areas affected by fighting on their own, he added.
For Russians, tracking down all the Ukrainian diversionary units roaming the region is difficult, Smirnov suggested, because some are using fake Russian IDs.
Not all the losses have been inflicted by Ukraine.
“A Russian Ka-52M helicopter attacked a Russian column of troops, as a result of which self-propelled gun 2S19M2 Msta-S was destroyed,” the Russia No Context Telegram channel reported.
While Black Bird Group’s Kastehelmi told us that the Ukrainian push into Belgorod had a far lighter presence, video emerged showing an initial Ukrainian thrust into Belgorod was backed up by armor.
Regardless, Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod Oblast, also announced the evacuation of people from a district near the Ukrainian border, describing Monday morning as “alarming” but giving no detail.
Residents there are also being evacuated.
As the advance continues, more video and images are emerging showing Ukrainian troops in donated vehicles.
The video below gives a view of Ukrainian troops driving a U.S.-supplied HMMWV through the center of Sudzha.
French and German vehicles were also spotted.
So too was a Polish-provided PT-91 Twardy main battle tank.
Germany’s Defense Ministry (MoD) gave its approval for Ukraine to use equipment donated by Berlin as they saw fit.
“After the weapons from Germany were handed over to Ukraine, they already belong to Ukraine, they are Ukrainian weapons… There are no obstacles, so Ukraine is free to choose opportunities,” a German MoD spokesman told Ukrainian news outlet Ukrinform on Monday.
During a visit to Kyiv on Monday, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called Ukraine’s shock cross-border operation into Russia’s Kursk region “brilliant” and “bold” and urged the Biden administration to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs.
If nothing else, as one retired Ukrainian general told us, this invasion has drastically boosted his country’s morale. The coming days will give us a better indication of what actual strategic gains, if any, it actually delivers.
Update: 7:16 PM Eastern –
Ukrainian Member of Parliament Roman Kostenko said he will be missing some future votes, but offered a good excuse. He said he joined his nation’s offensive into Russia.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com