Last February, when Ukraine marked the second anniversary of the full-on invasion by Russia, the geopolitical chess pieces were in vastly different positions than they are today, the third anniversary of the war.
The U.S., Ukraine’s staunch benefactor, has made a stunning course correction under President Donald Trump. The new administration has opened up direct negotiations with Russia without Ukraine at the table and has put into question America’s commitment to NATO. A deal to obtain rights to Ukraine’s mineral reserves that Trump says will recoup America’s investment in the war effort has also spurred a backlash in Kyiv.
Perhaps nothing is more illustrative of this change than the U.S. siding with Russia, North Korea, Iran and 14 other Moscow allies Monday against a resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine and calling for the return of Ukrainian territory.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is feeling the effects of the slow provision of arms by the Biden administration. It is on its heels across a 600-mile front line in a grinding, bloody fight that is resulting in the slow loss of territory in critical areas. Any gains by either side have come at a tremendous cost to both sides. Ukraine’s salient in Russia’s Kursk region has been greatly reduced since its peak last fall. Overall, the Ukrainian armed forces are facing a glaring manpower deficit, which puts into question its ability to sustain the status quo.
One reason for Trump’s embrace of Putin is his desire to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, The Wall Street Journal recently suggested.
A briefing memo obtained by the Journal “suggested that Moscow propose ending cooperation with China on sensitive technological and military issues as part of a deal to end the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to Russia.”
Moscow “could also offer to limit Chinese participation in infrastructure projects that would strengthen China’s strategic capabilities,” the memo said. “It also suggested a pledge by Russia to limit the resumption of natural gas exports to Europe to undermine European competitiveness and to allow sales of American liquefied natural gas, as well as offers to grant U.S. companies rights to mineral deposits in occupied Ukraine.”
However, prying Moscow and Beijing apart would be difficult at best. With a “no-limits” friendship agreement, the two have deep military and intelligence ties, and China has provided computer chips and machine tools the Russian military has relied on.
Reacting to the seismic shift in U.S.-European relations, the presumptive new German chancellor said America can no longer be counted on as a trusted ally.
“For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA” in defense matters,” Friedrich Merz said.
Leader of the center-right CDU/CSU alliance, Merz said he had “no illusions at all about what is coming out of America.”
“After Donald Trump’s statements in the last week, it is clear that the Americans are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe,” he said on German television following national elections. “I’m very curious to see how we head toward the NATO summit at the end of June — whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly,” Merz added.
Germany has contributed the second most military aid to Ukraine, trailing only the U.S., according to the Kiel Institute For The World Economy’s Ukraine Support Tracker.
Merz’s election could be good news for Ukraine. As we previously reported, he favors providing Kyiv with air-launched Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles, a 180-degree change from outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
With future U.S. support for Ukraine in question, several European nations on Monday proposed military aid for Ukraine in 2025 ranging from €20bn ($21 billion) to €40bn ($42 billion), The Guardian reported, although most member states did not offer any specific figure, according to several diplomatic sources. The €40bn figure was mentioned by one member state and is seen as an outlier.
The EU says it gave Ukraine €20bn ($21 billion) in military aid in 2024, a figure that is a starting point for the latest plan on the table.
EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, suggested that the alliance “would send Ukraine ‘as soon as possible’ at least 1.5m rounds of large-caliber ammunition, air-defense systems, missiles capable of deep precision strikes, drones, as well as offering training to brigades,” The Guardian reported. A decision is being passed to EU leaders, who will gather for an emergency summit in Brussels next Thursday, where they will also discuss European defense.
Speaking to reporters today after meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump stated that he was “helping Ukraine like nobody’s ever helped Ukraine before” trying to end a conflict that has seen each side suffer about 700,000 troop casualties. The War Zone cannot independently verify Trump’s figures.
Those staggering Russian losses have come with limited gains, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested.
“Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,” ISW assessed. “These Russian efforts included major operations in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast area, Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar, northern Kharkiv Oblast, Toretsk, Marinka-Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar-Velyka Novosilka. Russia has achieved relatively faster gains in 2024 than throughout most of the war after the initial invasion and developed a blueprint for conducting slow, tactical envelopments to achieve these advances, but Russian forces have failed to restore the operational maneuver necessary to achieve operationally significant gains rapidly.”
While a peace deal is not on the table yet, the on-again, off-again deal to provide the U.S. with access to Ukraine’s rare earths and minerals is back on, according to Bloomberg News.
“The US will commit to a ‘free, sovereign and secure’ Ukraine and a ‘lasting peace’ as part of a minerals deal that now appears imminent,” Bloomberg reported, citing a recent draft text it saw.
The Trump administration will agree to a “durable partnership” between Washington and Kyiv, the draft shows. The U.S. will signal intent to invest in Ukraine and will also say those who ‘acted adversely’ to the war-torn nation shouldn’t “benefit from its reconstruction.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna says the minerals deal is in the “final stages,” Bloomberg explained, adding the text is still not final and subject to change.
Trump too suggested a deal was near.
The mineral deal was imperiled after Zelensky pushed back against Trump’s demand for a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s deposits of rare earths and other minerals as part of a draft “deal” the U.S. president said would reflect the amount of aid the U.S. has provided to Ukraine during its war with Russia.
“I am not going to recognize $500 (billion),” Zelensky said during a press conference at a forum marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
That could take 250 years, Zelensky noted, adding that he could not sign anything that “ten generations of Ukrainians” would have to pay back.
Another reported objection to the deal was the U.S. threatening to cut off Elon Musk’s Starlink internet system widely used by front-line units if Ukraine didn’t agree to the terms. That report is now in question based on statements from Ukrainian officials. Regardless, Ukraine has alternatives for that system and is making decisions about the use of the technology, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said at the Ukraine: Year 2025 forum in Kyiv on Sunday.
The head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said so far, Musk’s Space X has not prevented Ukraine from using its Starlink satellite communications system.
“The U.S. has the ability to remotely cut off Starlink connections and has previously turned off Starlinks belonging to Russian forces in the military ‘gray zone’, akin to no man’s land,” Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told reporters. “No Starlinks belonging to Ukrainians have been turned off so far.”
Clearly, Ukraine has an interest in ending this war while seeking durable peace.
Zelensky, for instance, suggested that in return for Ukrainian membership in NATO, he would be willing to resign.
“If (it guarantees) peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to resign, I am ready. I can exchange it for NATO,” he told reporters on Sunday. His statement came after Trump said that Zelensky needs to run for reelection again and declared him a dictator because he has frozen elections since the war began.
As we previously reported, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Kyiv joining NATO was unrealistic, upending the alliance’s stated policy that Ukraine was on an “irreversible path” to membership.
During a news conference with Western leaders in Kyiv, Zelensky expressed optimism that 2025 will be the last year of this war.
“We hope that we can finish the war this year,” he said.
Budanov said that he believes there will be a ceasefire with Russia this year, but its duration remains questionable.
He described the situation as “paradoxical” since the positions of Kyiv and Moscow are drastically opposite.
“At the same time, I think we will reach a ceasefire this year,” Budanov said.
“How long it will be, how effective it will be, is another question. But I think it will happen. Most of the components needed for this to happen are there.”
Budanov added that he does not believe a peacekeeping force, like the one proposed by European leaders, will do much good.
“Can this be considered a guarantee?” he asked rhetorically. “It’s questionable — let’s just say, very much in doubt.”
As Budanov noted, nothing is set in stone when it comes to the future of this war. Though his forces have taken tremendous casualties and he is facing economic pressures at home, Putin sees his troops on the offensive and may decide it is to his advantage to continue fighting. Ukraine, meanwhile, though exhausted, has little faith that Russia would live up to any agreements it signs.
Still, there is a growing sense that Feb. 24, 2026, won’t presage a fifth year of fighting.
The Latest
On the battlefield, the front lines continued to remain largely stagnant with Russia making some small gains in Luhansk Oblast while both sides inched forward in parts of Donetsk. Here are some key takeaways from the latest ISW assessment:
- Kursk: Russian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast on Feb. 23 but did not make any confirmed advances.
- Kharkiv: Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Kharkiv direction on Feb. 23 but did not advance.
- Luhansk: Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Kupyansk, Borova and Lyman directions on Feb. 23 but did not make confirmed advances.
- Donetsk: Russian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk and Siversk directions while Ukraine advanced near Toretsk. Meanwhile, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar and Kurakhove directions on Feb. 23 but did not advance
- Zaporizhia: Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Zaporizhia direction on Feb. 23 but did not advance.
- Kherson: Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kherson direction on Feb. 23 but did not advance.
As part of a 1.2 billion Kroner ($110 million) arms package for Ukraine, Sweden will send an unspecified number of its TRIDON Mk2 40mm anti-aircraft artillery guns, according to the Swedish OMNI media outlet.
The BAE Systems-produced weapon uses the Bofors 40mm gun mounted on a 6X6 truck. It fires a programmable proximity munition designed to defend against a wide range of air- and land-based threats, according to BAE.
“The system has an effective range of up to 12km, depending on the target, selected ammunition, sensor suite and surrounding terrain,” according to BAE.
The Pentagon pushed back on reports that it was about to shut down a port facility in Greece that has served as a logistics node for shipping American equipment bound for Ukraine.
“There is no U.S. base in Alexandroupolis – it is a Greek facility that the U.S. has access to under the Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement,” a U.S. defense official told The War Zone Monday morning. “It simply serves as a surface transportation hub when U.S. equipment flows into and out of Europe. US transport personnel can surge to the location to manage episodic arrivals and departures of equipment, but this is not a US ‘base’ for the US to close.”
The U.S. official’s comments are in response to our questions about the future of this hub raised by Greek media.
“As the direct talks between the US and Russian delegations on the fate of Ukraine are considered positive and productive, the Trump administration will no longer send American material and personnel to Ukraine against Russia and therefore the American base in Alexandroupolis may be considered unnecessary,” the Greek gnomionline media outlet reported.
In addition to not being a U.S. base to close, the official told us there was no anticipated change in the flow of equipment from the port.
“The U.S. population changes depending on the shipments, so it wouldn’t be strange for a small footprint to be there depending on the day,” the official added.
“Priority access to the Port of Alexandroupolis in northeastern Greece has allowed the U.S. military to continue to support Ukraine as that nation fights to maintain its sovereignty following the unprovoked February 24 invasion by Russia, the U.S. defense secretary told his Greek counterpart,” the Pentagon said in a statement released in July 2022, about five months after Russia launched its full-on invasion.
“The Port of Alexandroupolis in northeastern Greece, just 60 miles north of the Dardanelles Strait in Turkey. Port access allows quick entrance to the Sea of Marmara and then on through the Bosporus into the Black Sea,” the Pentagon explained at the time.
During a press conference, Trump did not seem aware of the issue.
“It’s not a correct story,” the president stated after asking his team for clarification.
Ukraine said it again struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery in Russia’s Ryazan region.
“At least five explosions were reported in the target area,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff claimed on Facebook. “Preliminary information indicates a fire broke out near the ELOU AT-6 primary oil processing unit. The results of the strike are being clarified.”
In addition, the General Staff said an oil depot in Russia’s Tula region was struck, “with a fire recorded near the ‘8 Marta’ plant” there.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have attacked at least 27 fuel and energy facilities in 16 regions of Russia since the beginning of 2025, according to an analysis by the ASTRA media outlet.
Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) displayed their skills and the advantages of fiber-optic cable guidance systems in the following video. It shows an FPV drone entering a fortified Russian equipment storage area, hunting through it for targets until it struck an armored personnel carrier. The guidance was so precise that the operators debated whether to hit the vehicle in the cab or on the side, ultimately deciding on the former. As we have previously noted, fiber optic cables are impervious to jamming because they directly connect the drone with the operator.
Russia says it has developed an AI-augmented interceptor drone that automatically hones in on a target once launched. The following video shows the vertical-launch propellor-driven drone making kinetic kills on several different drone variants.
The Ukrainian Air Force has stepped up the use of its donated F-16 Vipers supporting its troops fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, according to the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel. The F-16s are serving as escort aircraft for Ukraine’s Soviet-era MiG-29 Fulcrum bomb trucks.
“They fly in groups of three aircraft,” Rybar claimed. “One F-16 and two MiG-29s, which act not only as cover aircraft but also to carry out strikes – the latter are armed with JDAM and Hammer guided air bombs.”
The MiG-29s “fly close to the border, while American aircraft keep a distance,” Rybar posited. “Most likely, they act as ‘hunters’ for our aircraft. Colleagues noted that the F-16s are armed with AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs).
As we recently reported, Ukraine is also using the Vipers on air-to-ground missions, which you can read more about here.
Augmenting a series of missile strikes on Sevastopol Harbor in occupied Crimea in 2023, Ukraine deployed Sea Baby drones to lay mines there, Kyiv officials announced.
“On September 14, 2023, immediately after a series of missile strikes on the bay using Storm Shadow cruise missiles, the Russian missile ship Samum exploded on one of the mines. After that, about 15 more mines were laid by the Sea Baby over the following weeks,” Brig. Gen. Ivan Lukashevych said during the Defense Tech Innovation Forum 2025.
The Sea Baby’s deployed Italian 220-kilogram MN103 Manta non-contact bottom mines, according to the Ukrainian Militarnyi media outlet.
Fearing future instability from demobilized veterans of the all-out war on Ukraine, the Kremlin is intensifying a campaign launched in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an “independent veterans-based civil society and an influx of alienated veterans in Russia,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported. That’s probably “because it perceives the demobilization of Russian veterans as a potential threat to regime stability.”
The Kremlin “likely fears that it will face even worse political instability than what the Soviet Union experienced after its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988-1989 because of Russia’s failure to militarize and mobilize Russian society for a protracted war,” ISW postulated.
Budanov claimed that Russia tried to launch FPV drones from its Mi-8 Hip helicopter gunships in an effort to destroy Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). That didn’t go as planned, the Ukrainian spy boss stated, explaining that after two out of three exploded in the helicopters, they abandoned the effort. Ukraine and Russia have played a cat-and-mouse game with USVs and these helicopters, with Kyiv claiming that one of its missile-equipped drone boats shot down a Hip in December.
Speaking of Hips, a video has emerged of a Ukrainian one engaging Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast. Taken from a camera on the Hip’s tail boom, it shows the helicopter firing S-8 rockets and flares and dropping bundles of chaff during an attack run.
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com