The United States and Israel are capitalizing on the power vacuum left by the demise of the Assad regime in Syria. Israel has carried out a string of attacks that have taken out much of what’s left of Assad’s weapons caches, naval assets, air force, and air defense systems so they don’t fall into the hands of whoever controls Syria next. Facilities tied to Assad’s chemical weapons programs and advanced weapons development were also struck. This is in addition to Israeli armor moving into Syria deeper into the Golan Heights to establish a ‘buffer zone.’ The U.S. has also seized the opportunity to execute large-scale airstrikes against ISIS across Syria. All of this has occurred as Syrian airspace has suddenly become far more permissive than it had been.
These actions come amid uncertainty about how the rebels will form a government and who it will align with given that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – who led the final uprising – is a U.S.-designated terror group. And considering how chaotic such transitions of power are, especially with so many competing factions in Syria, it’s unknown if a wider civil war could erupt and create another even more nebulous power vacuum. It is clearly this uncertainty that the U.S. and Israel are trying to hedge against.
On Saturday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces carried out “dozens of precision airstrikes targeting known ISIS camps and operatives … The strikes against the ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps were conducted as part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS, in order to prevent the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria.”
The operation struck over 75 targets using multiple U.S. Air Force assets, including B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s, according to CENTCOM.
The U.S. government is also working with regional partners to secure or eliminate the chemical weapons that Assad sometimes used against his own people.
That effort “is a top-tier priority of ours, and making sure that anything with those types of derivatives, which is everything from chlorine to far worse is destroyed or cared for,” a U.S. official told reporters on Sunday. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, ruled out having U.S. troops on the ground in Syria to assist.
“I would not envision a scenario where we have U.S. boots on the ground for such a mission,” the official said. “I think we have ways to take care of these things. But it is a primary focus.”
The key to securing the chemical weapons is having Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) inspectors’ boots on the ground, David Adesnik of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) told us.
“The U.S. has ample incentives it can use to encourage Damascus to cooperate if its cooperation is for sale,” he said of relations with the government replacing Assad. “We can adjust the speed at which we lift sanctions on Syria or contribute to reconstruction. Damascus also needs us to help broker a rapprochement with the Kurdish-led SDF, which is sitting on top of most of Syria’s oil and gas.”
CENTCOM’s airstrikes came after President-elect Donald Trump stated on social media that America has no business in Syria, where there are still about 900 U.S. troops. Trump’s reaction to the fall of Assad likely offered a preview into what could be a more hands-off approach to that country.
“There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid,” Trump said on his Truth Social social media platform. “In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
You can see that message below.
It should be noted that in 2017 when he was president, Trump ordered a Tomahawk missile strike on Syrian targets in response to Assad using sarin gas in an attack on Khan Shaykhun that killed hundreds. A year later, however, he decided with little warning and against overwhelming advice from his cabinet and senior advisers to rapidly withdraw all personnel from Syria and end combat operations in the country overall. That action spurred Defense Secretary James Mattis to resign. That move never came to pass before Trump lost his re-election bid to Joe Biden, who maintained a U.S. military presence inside Syria.
As noted earlier, Israel is also bombing many targets in Syria and has moved more troops into the demilitarized zone separating the Golan Heights it occupies from the rest of Syria. The goal, according to officials in Jerusalem, is to improve Israel’s security situation by creating a buffer zone and dismantling “strategic weapons systems” before they can fall into the hands of nefarious groups or even a future Syrian government.
“The only interest we have is the security of Israel and its citizens,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told reporters on Monday. “That’s why we attacked strategic weapons systems, like, for example, remaining chemical weapons, or long-range missiles and rockets, in order that they will not fall in the hands of extremists.”
Saar did not provide details about when or where the strikes took place. However, Fox News reported on Twitter that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) “hit over 250 targets in Syria last night hours after U.S. bombers and strike aircraft dropped 140 satellite-guided bombs on ISIS … .”
The IAF attacked warehouses belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) near Deir Ezzor in the east, as well as Syrian Navy ships in the Latakia port on the Mediterranean Sea and warehouses in the surrounding countryside, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based monitoring group. The official Iranian Press TV news outlet confirmed IAF strikes on Syria’s Navy in Latakia.
“New explosions have been reported in Latakia as Israel launches more airstrikes, having already destroyed the Naval Port in the city,” Press TV reported.
The IAF has also destroyed Syrian “fighter jets in airports in addition to radars and weapon depots since Bashar Al-Assad escaped from Syria,” SOHR reported, adding that the IAF also conducted airstrikes “on the 112th Brigade in the area between Al-Sheikh Misken and Nawa Cities in western countryside, and targeted Al-Kam military warehouses in the vicinity of Mahja Town northern of Daraa for the seventh time today.”
There were at least two explosions heard in Barzeh, north of Damascus, where the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center has an office, three witnesses in the neighborhood told Reuters. The SSRC has been sanctioned and previously struck for its links to chemical weapons production under Assad.
In addition to airstrikes, Israel has moved more troops deeper into Syria, specifically the Golan Heights which it has occupied much of since the 1967 Six-Day War.
“Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, marking their first overt entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War,” The New York Times reported, citing two Israeli officials speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive developments. “Israeli forces took control of the mountain summit of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side of the border, as well as several other locations deemed essential for stabilizing control of the area.”
On Sunday, “forces of the [IDF] 210th Division took steps to proactive ensure the defense of Golan in light of internal events in Syria,” the IDF said Monday on Telegram. “Paratroopers’ forces, joined by other troops, are conducting defense activities in the field to prevent any threat and are deployed in key positions within the buffer zone. Additionally, engineering, infantry, and armored forces are operating under the command of the 474th and the 810th regional brigades, and are stationed along Israel’s border with Syria to secure the area.”
Israel’s Minister of Defense, Israel Katz, has ordered the creation of a “safe zone” in Syria, free of weapons and “terrorist” infrastructure.
“Katz’s instructions came after the IDF, on Sunday afternoon, took over the Syrian side of Mount Hermon to enlarge a demilitarized buffer zone along Israel’s border with Syria,” The Jerusalem Post reported on Monday. “According to Katz, the security zone within the buffer zone would be free of strategic weapons and terror infrastructure. Katz’s directives also included preventing the renewal of the smuggling routes from Iran to Lebanon via Syria.”
Incoming Trump National Security Advisor Mike Waltz told Bret Baier of Fox News that “Iran was emboldened over the last several years. Fortunately, Israel took a strong stand, the pager and walkie-talkie operation that took out Hezbollah, they persisted in going into Rafah [in Gaza] … Israel deserves a lot of credit for putting Iran on its back foot.”
Iran is dealing with the aftermath of the fall of Assad, another embarrassing loss in a string of recent setbacks that included seeing its Hezbollah proxy forces devastated in an Israeli offensive. Tehran’s ability to rearm that group will be severely hampered by not having Syrian or Russian air forces and air defense systems protecting what was already a porous sky from airstrikes on weapons storage facilities and transshipment points.
For 35 years, the Assad regime helped Iran maintain a counterbalance to U.S. and Israeli influence in the region and now that’s gone. However, Tehran still has the Houthis in Yemen and several militias in Iraq along with a defanged Hezbollah and a besieged Hamas in Gaza.
Speaking of the Houthis, some leaders of the Yemen militant group are reportedly openly disparaging Assad now that he is no longer part of the so-called Axis of Resistance.
After spending decades and billions backing Assad during the civil war, Iran is facing an internal backlash.
“Fault lines are emerging in Iran’s [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] IRGC over the handling of Syria,” Kasra Aarabi, Director of IRGC Research at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UNI) think tank, argued on Twitter. “Younger radicals are enraged at the ‘abandonment. This will cause [Iran’s supreme leader Ali Hosseini] Khamenei major problems.”
While Russia has supposedly taken in Assad, there is no indication that President Vladimir Putin intends to meet publicly with the former Syrian strongman. Meanwhile, the fate of Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval base – its two key military facilities located on the Mediterranean Sea – remains in question. You can read more about that in our latest piece here.
The U.S. and Israel aren’t the only ones bombarding targets in Syria, either.
There is an ongoing proxy war between Turkey and Kurds, with both sides using drone strikes amid fierce fighting in the northern and eastern parts of Syria.
U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian forces (SDF) hit Turkish-backed Syrian militants with drones.
Meanwhile, a Turkish drone strike killed 11 civilians north of Raqqa, according to SOHR.
As we noted in the opening of this piece, the ferocity of these strikes are largely opportunistic in nature. Concerns about equipment and capabilities falling into the hands of current and potentially future enemies is one driver, but the ability to operate over the country freely is a new development. A complex arrangement of loose norms and constantly morphing deconfliction channels existed for some actors to share the airspace to a limited degree, but the western part of the country remained a relatively high-threat area. This is especially true when it comes to Israel’s air operations. Often times the IAF would use standoff munitions to keep manned fighters outside of the highest-risk areas, if possible. With Assad’s regime gone and the husk of his military in disarray, as well as Russia’s degraded air picture and need to protect its immediate interests, now is clearly seen as the time to strike.
Israel, in particular, is working to reduce the future risk of a hostile Syrian regime by neutering what was left of Assad’s more advanced and deadly military capabilities. Thus the free-for-all of sorts in terms of the application of airpower over the country in the last 48 hours or so.
The ongoing airstrikes in Syria come amid uncertainty about what kind of government the HTS-led rebel alliance will form.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has emphasized a new approach, delivering a message of inclusion. In a speech following the capture of Damascus, Julani said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after Assad’s ouster and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East, Al Jazeera reported.
“We [the Syrian people] are the rightful owners [of this country]. We have been fighting, and today we have been rewarded with this victory,” he said.
However, there are still concerns about what direction Julani might take and if he can even wrangle enough of Syria’s warring factions to create a stable government.
Saudi Arabia, a Sunni nation that has battled the Shia Houthis in Yemen backed by Iran, is calling for “unified efforts to safeguard Syria’s unity and cohesion. These efforts are essential to protecting Syria from sliding into chaos and division, The Kingdom affirms its support for all measures aimed at achieving Syria’s security and stability while preserving its sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.”
As regional states race to open contact with HTS, diplomats from Qatar spoke with the group on Monday, an official briefed on the developments told Reuters.
“Qatar plans to speak with Mohamed al-Bashir, an HTS leader, on Tuesday, the day after he was appointed to lead Syria’s transitional administration,” Reuters noted.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose forces are striking targets in Syria and pushing deeper into the country at any time since 1973, offered a mixed message on Monday about his nation’s approach to a new government in Damascus.
“If we can establish neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that’s our desire,” he said. “But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel.”
A U.S. official on Monday told The War Zone that it was too early to say what approach America will take to Syria’s new leaders. However, Washington said it will assess not just their words, but their actions.
“After 14 years of conflict, the Syrian people finally have reason for hope,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Sunday. “The Assad regime’s refusal since 2011 to engage in a credible political process and its reliance on the brutal support of Russia and Iran led inevitably to its own collapse. The United States strongly supports a peaceful transition of power to an accountable Syrian government through an inclusive Syrian-led process. During this transitional period, the Syrian people have every right to demand the preservation of state institutions, the resumption of key services, and the protection of vulnerable communities.”
“We have taken note of statements made by rebel leaders in recent days, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions,” Blinken added. “We again call on all actors to respect human rights, take all precautions to protect civilians, and to uphold international humanitarian law.”
It will take some time, if at all before the HTS-led rebels can form a cohesive government.
In the meantime, the U.S. and Israel will continue to take advantage of Assad’s absence.
Update: 11:01 AM Eastern –
New information has emerged about Israel’s ongoing attacks in Syria.
The IAF carried out about 300 airstrikes on targets in Syria early Tuesday morning, according to The Jerusalem Post, citing security sources. In addition, the Israeli Navy struck the Syrian Navy at the port of Latakia, according to the Israeli Ynet news outlet.
Most of the airstrikes were in southern Syria and around the city of Damascus, targeting Syrian army bases, The Jerusalem Post reported, adding that there was “an emphasis on air defense systems and stores of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles.”
Those strikes have had a cascading effect, “significantly expanding” IAF’s operational freedom, The Jerusalem Post suggested.
In addition, the Israeli Navy “carried out a significant operation on Monday night, targeting and destroying much of the Syrian regime’s naval fleet,” according to Ynet.
New video and images emerged of the Israeli Navy attack on Syrian Navy targets at the port in Latakia.
The images show destroyed boats and port facilities. You can read more about those particular strikes here.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com