Vladimir Putin’s much-anticipated second counteroffensive against the three-month-old Ukrainian occupation of Russia’s Kursk region appears to be underway in a much larger fashion than the one launched in September. This time, not only are there far more Russian troops, but there appears to be the first deployment of a significant number of North Korean troops in combat on Russia’s behalf as well.
“They are now doing the order of their military leadership, trying to push our troops out and push deep into the territory we hold,” Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, announced on Facebook Monday after visiting the region.
To end this invasion, which Ukrainian officials say has occupied about 500 square miles of territory, Russia has amassed about 50,000 troops, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday. That includes some from North Korea, The New York Times reported on Sunday, citing U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
Ukraine had been steadily losing ground in Kursk since September after Russia launched a previous attempt to kick them out. However, they’ve largely managed to hold ground in recent weeks, while significant parts of the Kursk battleground remain in flux and controlled by neither side. Whether this counteroffensive will result in large thrusts or chipping away at Ukrainian positions is unclear at the moment. Attacks seem to have increased in the past few days, with Russian forces attempting to chew off pieces of the Ukrainian salient from several directions.
“Obviously, they will try to take back as much territory as possible” Rob Lee, a Russian military specialist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia who recently returned from a visit to Ukraine, told us. “But, given the quality of the Ukrainian units there, we may see Russia continue to chip away and make incremental advances.”
Statements from Ukrainian troops and video from the battlefield indicate Russia has taken heavy losses in so-called “meat attacks,” similar to how they’ve fought in eastern Ukraine.
“During two days of assault, the enemy did nothing except destroy their units and equipment, namely 28 units of the enemy’s equipment and more than 100 [Russians] from the 810th brigade of the Russian marines,” Ukraine’s 95th Brigade claimed on Telegram. “But about a hundred more occupiers were seriously injured on the territory of Kursk. Our paratroopers repelled the desire of the Russians to continue the assault – the [Russians] began to retreat, but not all succeeded.”
The War Zone cannot independently verify that claim.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Telegram that its Northern grouping of troops “repelled six enemy counter-attacks in the direction of Daryino, Nikolayevo-Daryino, and Novoivanovka.”
The high quality of forces Kyiv has committed to Kursk has created a conundrum for Ukraine’s thinly stretched military.
In his message on Monday, Syrskyi claimed the invasion forced Russia to pull troops from the fight inside Ukraine.
“If not for the resilience of our soldiers, these tens of thousands of enemies from the best Russian strike units would storm our positions in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove or Toretsk directions, which would significantly worsen the situation on the frontlines,” he said.
However, U.S. officials have a different view.
“A new U.S. assessment concludes that Russia has massed the force without having to pull soldiers out of Ukraine’s east — its main battlefield priority — allowing Moscow to press on multiple fronts simultaneously,” The New York Times reported.
Adding validity to that assessment, Russian troops continue to make gains in eastern Ukraine, especially near Kurakhove in the Donetsk region.
“The enemy continues to implement his large-scale plan to envelop the city, entering from the flanks,” the Ukrainian DeepState open-source intelligence collective stated on Telegram Monday. “As we noted earlier, [the Russians], having increased the pressure from new directions, are trying to enter the logistical routes of the Defense Forces, and from that moment on, this process is only gaining momentum. As of today, Muscovites are storming the positions of the Ukrainian military from the north, south and east:”
“We have to remind once again that ‘lies will destroy us all,’” DeepState complained. “But even in attracting additional resources that arrive in the Kurakhove region, questions of the adequacy of the deployment arise. With such actions, the loss of control over Kurakhove remains a matter of time. And if the problem with the flanks is not taken under control, then very soon it will turn into another disaster.”
As part of their advance, Russian forces have damaged the Kurakhove dam, according to the regional governor.
“This strike potentially threatens residents of settlements on the Vovchii River, both in Donetsk region and in Dnipro region,” Vadym Filashkin said on Telegram.
The losses in the east are not going unnoticed by Ukrainian troops, who are questioning the value of the Kursk gambit.
Syrskyi’s strategy “raises questions among some military personnel who do not understand why resources are being directed to the Kursk region while the defense in the Donbas is weakening,” the Spanish El Pais newspaper posited, citing an interview with a former Ukrainian commander. “Perhaps our leaders have some big secret plan, otherwise I don’t understand why our best brigades are in Kursk region, while our ‘defense’ in Ukraine is falling apart,” the newspaper quotes Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Dmitry Marchenko, who recently announced his dismissal from the army.
Making matters worse for Ukraine, there are about 10,000 North Korean troops in Kursk, according to the Pentagon. They are part of a cadre of what the head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate told us was some 12,000 of Pyongyang’s soldiers in Russia.
There are fresh claims that the North Koreans are involved in the fighting.
“North Korean troops were taking part in direct combat operations in Kursk, as well as defensive operations in the neighboring Belgorod region of Russia and in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories,” a Ukrainian commander told CNN Sunday.
“Mostly, the tasks are defined as the second echelon of defense. In the Kursk region, these are direct combat operations,” he said, adding that among the personnel were specialist artillerymen and snipers.”
The North Korean troops were a “significant resource” for Russia’s war on Ukraine, the commander continued, noting that even those being deployed defensively would free up Russian troops for assault operations elsewhere and would themselves eventually be used in direct combat.
With Russia increasing pressure on the Kursk salient while also gaining ground in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv’s political and military leadership faces a stark choice about where they want to continue to commit their limited amount of troops and equipment.
“It depends on where Ukraine chooses to prioritize,” Rob Lee suggested to us. “Kursk clearly remains a priority given the size of the force and the quality of the units committed there. The operation has stretched Ukrainian forces and has likely contributed to Russia’s increased rate of advance elsewhere on the front line.”
“Russia,” he added, “will likely continue to try to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk while also continuing offensive operations elsewhere on the front. A potential offensive from Zaporizhzhia could stretch Ukrainian forces even more.”
All this comes against the backdrop of political change in the U.S, Ukraine’s biggest backer. On Jan. 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump will once again become president. While the mercurial Trump claims he can quickly end the war in a plan he has yet to make public, there are concerns that he might abandon Ukraine if such a deal is not accepted by Kyiv. However, the issue is far more nuanced and complex, as we noted in our deep dive on the subject which you can read more about here.
As we previously reported, Zelensky sees Kursk as a bargaining chip.
“Our operation is aimed to restore our territorial integrity,” Zelensky said in early September. “We capture Russian troops to replace them with the Ukrainians. The same attitude is to the territories. We don’t need their land.”
Unfortunately for Ukraine, Zelensky is playing a steadily weakening hand. While both sides are struggling to meet recruiting goals, Russia has a far larger pool to pull from and is regenerating its forces more quickly. Meanwhile, should North Korean troops see success on the battlefield, Kim Jong-un could send tens of thousands more to Russia, not just for fighting in Kursk, but also in Ukraine.
One Western official told the Times that the Kursk invasion “thinned out its forces across the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, leaving them vulnerable to Russian advances. But that official, and U.S. officials, said Ukraine still had a strong defense in Kursk and might be able to hold, at least for a time.”
Though Ukraine continues to lose troops and territory, Zelensky will likely do whatever he can to keep Kursk contested until Trump takes office and negotiations can begin.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com