Satellite imagery shows clear indications that Russia’s anticipated withdrawal of forces from its Tartus naval base in Syria has finally started. Complete loss of access to the facility, where Russian vehicles and materiel have been massing there for weeks already, would be a major blow to the Kremlin. The Russian military has already been steadily drawing down its posture at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria amid persistent questions about the future of its presence in the country as a whole since the sudden fall of dictator Bashar Al Assad last year.
Satellite imagery taken on Jan. 25 that TWZ obtained from Maxar, seen at the top of this story and below, shows the Russian-flagged roll-on/roll-off (RO/RO) cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II docked in Tartus, as well as cargo transloading activity. The two ships had been holding offshore for days before finally being allowed to enter the port.
The images also show the disappearance of a significant number of Russian vehicles and other materiel from a pier where they had been marshalled weeks ago.
An additional satellite image taken on Jan. 27 that TWZ reviewed from Planet Labs shows even more vehicles and materiel missing from the pier. Vehicles are also now visible arrayed in a row close to the pier edge, which would make them easier to load onto a ship. A large number of shipping containers have also now appeared in another nearby cargo marshaling area, though it is unclear whether or not this is related to the movement of Russian materiel or non-military cargo operations that have now resumed at the port.
As noted, all of this follows the Sparta and Sparta II finally entering the port of Tartus last week. The satellite image from Planet also confirms that one of these vessels has now departed, which would align with the aforementioned disappearance of the vehicles and materiel.
Videos had also previously emerged on social media said to show Ka-52 and Mi-8 series helicopters providing overwatch around Tartus. Similar aerial activity has been observed in the past around the withdrawal of forces from Khmeimim. The image from Planet also looks to show a Russian Grachonok class patrol boat, designed primarily for force protection duties in and around ports, moored in Tartus.
TWZ has previously highlighted the significant vulnerability of Russian maritime and ground assets at both Tartus and Khmeimim, especially to drones, as emplaced air and other defenses appear to have been broken down for withdrawal. Russian naval vessels that were in the port of Tartus when Assad fell left shortly thereafter in another apparent force protection move. Many of them still appear to be holding off the coast, though the Improved Kilo class submarine Novorossiysk has notably left the region.
Another Russian RO/RO cargo ship, the Sparta IV, was recently observed leaving the Baltic Sea along with a Russian Navy Ropucha class amphibious warfare ship. These vessels may also be headed for Syria, but this currently remains unconfirmed. Other Russian amphibious warfare ships that could be used to transport cargo out of Tartus have also arrived off the coast of that port in recent weeks. Another Russian-flagged cargo ship, the Ursa Major, which may have been Syria-bound, sank in the Mediterranean in December 2024 under still-murky circumstances as you can read more about here.
The recent activity in and around Tartus also follows still-unconfirmed reports from Syrian media that the country’s fledgling government in Damascus canceled Russia’s 49-year lease agreement for its base in Tartus. The Kremlin had struck the deal back in 2017 with the Assad regime, which had essentially gifted the naval facility, as well as Khmeimim Air Base, to the Russians. Two years earlier, Russia’s military launched an intervention in the country some two years earlier, which had saved Assad from advancing rebel forces. Russian forces were still actively fighting rebel forces, including elements of the coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that ultimately deposed Assad, right up until the collapse of the regime.
As TWZ highlighted even before the fall of Assad’s regime in December 2024, Tartus and Khmeimim are strategically very significant for Russia beyond just operations in Syria and the Middle East. The facilities have been particularly important nodes for supporting Russian activity in Africa, especially Libya, where the Kremlin looks to be trying now to bolster its presence. Tartus notably provided the Russian Navy with a key warm water port. Khmeimim, which Russia has notably expanded in recent years, including to help the base better serve larger aircraft like bombers, had also been a valuable point from which to project air power across the Mediterranean and elsewhere.
What the final status of the naval base at Tartus and Khmeimim Air Base will look like remains unclear. Russia has, unsurprisingly, voiced clear interest in retaining at least some kind of presence at both facilities and has reportedly been negotiating with the new Syrian authorities in Damascus to this end. For its part, the post-Assad government, led by members of HTS, has previously expressed a willingness to maintain ties with the Kremlin despite open conflict between the two sides just two months ago.
The situation across Syria is otherwise still extremely fluid, and the new government in Damascus has yet to consolidate control over much of the country. Turkish-backed forces continue to openly fight with Kurdish groups, including elements tied to the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in the north. There has also been talk of integrating the SDF into a new national military.
In southwestern Syria, Israel looks to be consolidating its control over territory in an ostensible buffer zone, moves that have been criticized by the HTS-led government and parts of the international community. Israeli, U.S., and other foreign forces have also taken advantage of the newly permissive airspace across Syria to launch airstrikes in support of their national interests. The U.S. military says its focus is on preventing ISIS terrorists from exploiting the situation to regroup and has reportedly shared intelligence with HTS to support that fight.
Still, many countries, including Russia and the United States, formally designate HTS as a terrorist group. Major U.S. and other foreign sanctions imposed on the Assad regime also remain in place, though American and European officials have moved to relax and/or suspend them.
Whether or not Russia’s military presence in Syria is now set to end entirely remains unknown, but after weeks of steady withdrawals from Khmeimim Air Base, the departure of forces from Tartus now looks to be actively underway.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com