Surrounded on three sides by Russian forces, the city of Vuhledar in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donetsk is on the verge of being captured after nearly three years of holding out.
The long-fought-over city in the southeastern part of Donetsk was once home to about 14,000 people but now is a burnt-out wasteland after years of Russian assaults. It is another important linchpin in Ukraine’s defense of the region and its fall – which seems imminent – imperils the southern flank of Pokrovsk. As we have written many times, it is a key logistics hub ensconced by highways and bisected by a major rail line.
Sitting astride the O0532 Highway, Vuhledar has its own logistical value to Ukrainian forces in the region, but that appears to be about to disappear.
Vuhledar is semi-encircled, Col. Vladyslav Seleznyov, former head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) General Staff press service, told the Kyiv Post.
“My prediction is that we will lose it in a few days, maybe even sooner,” he said, adding that Russian troops have entered an area of multi-story buildings.
In January and February 2023, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the AFU “outnumbered and defeated Russian troops near Vuhledar, and has been defending this section of the front for two years,” the Kyiv Post noted.
The 72nd is severely exhausted, Seleznyov said, and it remains uncertain whether the AFU’s General Staff has the resources to continue defending the city, given that Ukrainian forces are stretched thin across the entire front line.
Seleznyov’s assessment of Vuhledar matches that of Ukrainian-born, pro-Russian military blogger Yuri Podolyaka.
“Russian units have entered Vuhledar – the storming of the town has begun,” he said in a post on Telegram on Sept. 23.
The latest map from the open-source intelligence gathering group DeepState shows that Russian forces have to the edges of the city.
The assault on Vuhledar has come with a heavy cost for Russia, losing a significant amount of troops and equipment over the past three years.
Meanwhile, about 35 miles to the north, Russian troops continue to press toward Pokrovsk, but with limited gains over the past week. There are several other Donetsk cities in peril because of the Russian advance, including Toretsk.
For Ukraine, on its heels across the 600-mile front lines, there was a modicum of good news. Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) forces say they recaptured a large factory located in the bombed-out city of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. That’s some 160 miles to the north of Vuhledar Russian troops have been holed up there since June.
“It was a difficult battle, but the soldiers of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine overcame the Russian invaders and won an important victory – with the strength of arms and spirit, mastery of thought and unprecedented courage,” GUR said on Twitter Tuesday.
For Ukraine, whatever joy can be gleaned from the victory in Vovchansk is outweighed by the sting of the impending loss of Vuhledar.
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Elsewhere on the battlefield, Ukrainian troops in Russia continue to push westward toward the town of Glushkovo, a tactically important city along the Seim River. There are thousands of Russian troops trapped south of the river between that town and Tetkino, about 15 miles to the west.
“Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Glushkovsky Raion west of Ukraine’s salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued offensive operations in the area on September 23,” the Institute for the Study of War stated in its latest assessment. “Geolocated footage published on September 23 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced to the southern outskirts of Veseloye (southwest of Glushkovo). Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked near Novy Put and Medvezhye (south of Glushkovo).”
In an address to the United Nations Security Council, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the war between Russia and Ukraine cannot be calmed by talks alone, Reuters reported. Moscow must be forced into peace, he emphasized.
Zelensky is seeking support from Western leaders for what he calls a “victory plan” to end the war that began when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of his country in February 2022.
The Ukrainian leader added that the war would end one day but not because “someone got tired of the war” or through a trade with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a reference to proposals that Ukraine cedes some territory seized by Russia to settle the conflict.
After his trip to the U.N., Zelensky headed to Washington, where he will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on Thursday. He has also said he will present his peace plan to Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump. It is unclear when or how that will take place, but Trump on Tuesday railed against Zelensky. After mocking Zelensky’s accent and positive spin on the war, Trump sarcastically called him “the greatest salesman on Earth” for obtaining billions in support from the U.S. and allies.
Trump also said he is the only one who can stop the war, but exactly how remains unknown.
With less than a week to go before the money runs out, the Biden administration is working to extend its authority to send $5.9 billion worth of U.S. weapons and equipment to Ukraine, Politico reported. That funding expires at the end of the month when the books close on Fiscal Year 2024.
The authority is part of a Ukraine aid package that passed in April. It allows the Pentagon to use its stockpiles to quickly send weapons and equipment to Ukraine. The money is used to replace the donated items in the U.S. arsenal.
On Wednesday, the Biden administration is set to announce a new $375 million aid package for Ukraine, ABC News reported on Twitter, citing a U.S. official. The package will include a cluster variant of Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) glide bombs, which can be fired by its new F-16s to strike targets up to 70 miles away. You can read more about JSOW here.
Russian forces again struck Kharkiv with an aerial assault, Zelensky said.
“The targets for Russian bombs are a residential building, a bakery, a stadium,” Zelensky said on Telegram. “That is, the ordinary life of ordinary people. Russia is a terrorist and proves it every day by its own actions, by its choice to fight and to try to expand the war.”
A rescue operation is currently underway in Kharkiv, he said, adding that there are at least three dead and 24 injured.
Russian troops retreating in Kursk managed to take some looted goods with them as they left.
A Russian BMP-3 Infantry Fighting Vehicle was obliterated in Kursk after being hit by a Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drone.
A donated Ukrainian CV-90 Infantry Fighting Vehicle rumbling across Kursk spotted a mine in its path, but too late to stop in time. This video shows the CV-90 striking the mine and erupting in a ball of flames. The fate of the crew is unclear.
As if Baba Yaga drones were not scary enough to Russians, Ukraine is now experimenting with equipping them to fly robot dogs.
“It is known that the Ukrainian Defense Forces use at least two models of robodogs: Unitree Go2 and BAD-2,” the Ukrainian Militinaryi news outlet reported.
In this dystopian nightmare of a video below, a Baba Yaga drone is seen lifting a robot dog off the ground, then depositing it in a heap until it rises and begins moving.
Ukrainian troops cleared a building with a great deal of help from a Norwegian-made Black Hornet mini drone. The video shows the drone entering the building and providing a view of what was inside. We first profiled its advantages in 2019.
Photos posted on the pro-Russian Ugolok Sitha Telegram channel on Monday purported to show Russian troops posting somewhere in Ukraine next to an armored vehicle the Ukrainian Militarniy news outlet identified as a Chinese ZFB-05 Xinxing “Tiger” 4 x 4 armored personnel carrier (APC).
Residents of Slovakia held a marathon to make 550 square meters of camouflage netting for Ukrainian troops. It lasted six days around the clock and their finished product will be sent to five Ukrainian brigades.
While both sides have spent a lot of time and energy on counter-drone measures, a simple Ukrainian curtain may have proved too much for a Russian drone that tried to fly in a window. The following video purports to show a curtain ensnaring the drone before it could do any damage.
And finally, Zelensky toured Pennsylvania’s Scranton Army Ammunition Plant on Sunday, where he watched 155mm shells being made. You can see a video of that visit, set to the theme of the Scranton-set “The Office” mockumentary.
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com