As the war in Ukraine drags on toward a fourth year, North Korea is preparing to send Moscow more troops beyond the 12,000 already there, as well as additional weapons, including suicide drones, according to the latest assessment from South Korean intelligence. This comes amid claims that casualties are mounting for Pyongyang’s forces in Kursk.
“A comprehensive assessment of multiple intelligence shows that North Korea is preparing to rotate or increase the deployment of troops (in Russia),” the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said, without offering specific numbers, according to the Yonhap News Agency. Ukrainian officials are also seeing signs that North Korea might send more troops to Russia.
“Today, we also received a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi on the frontline and the areas of the Kursk operation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Twitter. “There are risks of North Korea sending additional troops and military equipment to the Russian army, and we will have tangible responses to this.”
North Korea also reportedly plans to ramp up production of suicide drones for use against Ukrainian forces, a development we noted last month.
“There are also some signs of (the North) moving to manufacture and supply suicide drones, first unveiled during Kim Jong-un’s on-site inspection in November,” the JCS said, according to Yonhap. The South Korean Joint Chiefs attributed the move to “the North’s efforts to gain practical warfare experience and modernize its conventional weapons system.”
A recent Wall Street Journal analysis of satellite imagery bolsters the South Korean JCS claim that North Korea is increasing weapons deliveries to Russia.
The imagery shows “that North Korea is shipping more munitions to Russia and is expanding arms production at home to churn out the weapons Moscow needs to feed its voracious war machine,” the publication reported. “Assistance from North Korea is allowing Russia to press its advantage against exhausted Ukrainian troops and could help it resist pressure from the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump to end the conflict.”
North Korea is providing 60% of the artillery and mortar shells used by Russia in Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian army officer heading a government unit tasked with countering Russian disinformation, told WSJ. “North Korean ammunition is holding the Russian defenses,” he said. “North Korea’s missiles now make up nearly a third of Russia’s ballistic missile launches at Ukraine this year, according to Ukrainian officials.”
“Russia is increasingly dependent on the DPRK,” Kovalenko said on Telegram Monday. “They cannot extend the front without their ammunition, they are not able to fight in Kursk without their people, they will become increasingly dependent on their equipment.”
Kovelenko called for Ukraine to continue to strike Russian economic assets to reduce its ability to pay for North Korean assistance.
“This is a great shame for Russia,” he posited. “However, in the future, it is worth understanding that the Russian military-industrial complex will weaken, but the DPRK military-industrial complex will work, and so that it does not provide the Russian Federation’s ability to fight, it is necessary to destroy the Russian Federation’s economic ability to pay.”
As we’ve previously reported, in addition to millions of rounds of artillery ammunition, North Korea has also provided Russia with KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles also known as Hwasong-11s.
The ROK JSC assessment noted that Pyongyang is also supplying Russia with 240-millimeter rocket launchers and 170 mm self-propelled artillery. As we reported last week, shipments of North Korean 170mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled artillery units were seen on rail cars heading to the front lines. The main advantage of the weapon is its long range, with the big 170mm gun assessed as capable of firing a standard shell to a range of around 25 miles, or a rocket-assisted shell to a range of 37 miles. For a long time, the weapon was judged to be the longest-range conventional artillery piece in North Korean service. The Koksans first began to appear in Russia in November. You can see video of the recent rail shipment of these weapons below.
The idea to provide troops and arms to Russia was proposed by North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, not Putin, but quickly embraced by Moscow, The New York Times reported on Monday. The arrangement is not an immediate quid pro quo, the publication added, but made by Kim in the hope of future benefits.
“U.S. officials do not believe Mr. Kim has received anything immediate in return,” the Times stated. “Instead, they say, he appears to be hoping that Russia will repay the favor in the future by offering support in diplomatic fights, assisting if a crisis breaks out and providing technology.”
The claim by anonymous U.S. officials that Pyongyang has yet to receive any benefits for its military largesse stands in stark contrast to what has previously been understood about the relationship.
North Korea has received shipments of food from Russia in the past, South Korean lawmakers have said. It has also received “more than a million barrels of oil since March this year, according to satellite imagery analysis from the Open Source Centre, a non-profit research group based in the UK,” according to the BBC.
In exchange for sending troops to Russia, it was believed that North Korea would potentially receive air defense systems and additional energy supplies and was reportedly going to receive fighter aircraft as well.
There have also been concerns that Moscow might provide North Korea with technologies to help accelerate its nuclear and long-range ballistic missile programs. Russia would also be a prime candidate to assist North Korea in pushing forward its submarine program, which also includes a growing family of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) as well as increasingly advanced submarine technologies.
Regardless of the details of the deal, North Korean troops and weapons are helping Russia squeeze the salient Ukraine established when it invaded the Kursk region in August. They are being used “as small, light infantry … and a little bit of indirect fire usage with mortar platoons, and things of that nature that they’ve been employing,” a senior U.S. military official told reporters, including from The War Zone, last week. “As far as the capabilities, they’re consistent with what you would think they would have, their lower caliber indirect fire capability, and then direct fire capability, and obviously the kind of communications equipment that you would expect.”
The North Koreans are reportedly paying an increasingly heavy price for aiding Russia. Their complete lack of previous combat experience is contributing to increasing casualties, the senior military official pointed out.
“They’re definitely up on the front line. They’re taking casualties. Based on the latest understanding that we have as of this afternoon, we’re looking at several hundred casualties … everything from wounds, up to being [killed in action] KIA.”
On Monday, South Korea’s spy agency suggested the figure was even higher now, with about 1,100 DPRK casualties, Yonhap reported. Zelensky on Monday claimed there were three times as many North Koreans killed or wounded.
“Now, according to preliminary data, the number of North Korean soldiers killed and wounded in the Kursk region has already exceeded 3,000,” Zelensky said.
The War Zone cannot independently verify any casualty figures. However, you can see some of those casualties in the following video produced by the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) showing several strikes on North Korean targets by first-person view (FPV) drones.
Ukraine is struggling to hold onto the territory it captured in Kursk and defend against Russian pressure in the eastern part of its country. The senior U.S. military official told us that the Pentagon concurs with previous reports that Ukraine has lost about 40% of the territory captured in Kursk during two major counter-operations.
The news about Pyongyang’s additional support for Moscow only adds to the pressure faced by Kyiv as the clock ticks down to a new Trump administration that could be far less supportive than Biden’s.
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On the battlefield, Russia continues to gain ground in Kursk, but despite a large-scale push across eastern Ukraine, made only incremental gains toward Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
According to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War:
- Kursk: Russian forces recently advanced in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on December 22. Russian forces continued assault operations southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka and Kruglenkoye, north of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Pogrebki; and northeast of Sudzha near Martynovka.
- Kharkiv: Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Kharkiv direction on December 22 but did not make any confirmed advances.
- Luhansk: Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Kupyansk direction amid continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 22.
- Donetsk: Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Siversk near Serebryanka and Bilohorivka, east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast of Siversk near Vyimka, toward Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, Vuhledar and near Velyka Novosilka on December 22 but did not make any confirmed advances. However, they recently advanced toward Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
- Zaporizhzhia: Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast following reports of localized Ukrainian offensive operations in the area. Geolocated footage published on December 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in central Kamyanske (northwest of Robotyne and south of Zaporizhzhia City).
- Kherson: A Ukrainian official confirmed that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups recently attempted a limited crossing of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated on December 21 that Russian forces conducted heavy artillery and rocket strikes against the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast on December 20, during which a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group unsuccessfully attempted to cross the Dnipro River near the Antonivsky roadway bridge (east of Kherson City) – consistent with recent Russian milblogger claims on December 21.
Ukraine is having so many problems providing enough forces to fight Russians that it is sending air defense troops to the front lines, according to the Guardian.
“Two sources in air defense units told the Guardian the deficit at the front has become so acute that the general staff has ordered already-depleted air defense units to free up more men to send to the front as infantry,” the publication reported. “It’s reaching a critical level where we can’t be sure that air defense can function properly,” one of the sources told the Guardian, adding he had been prompted to speak out by a fear that the situation was a risk to Ukraine’s security.
“These people knew how air defense works, some had been trained in the West and had real skills, now they are sent to the front to fight, for which they have no training,” said the source.
Another concern is that if any of these troops are captured, they could provide critical information about the location and capabilities of Ukrainian air defense systems.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yuri Ignat pushed back on the assertion that his country’s air defenses would suffer as a result of this mobilization.
“Of course, transferring to the Infantry creates problematic issues with personnel inside the Air Force,” he said Sunday on Facebook. “There are not enough people and that’s also a well-known fact! But why talk about the ineffectiveness of the [air defenses] and that the [interceptions of Russian aerial threats] have become less? After all, the [air defenses] are not just the Air Force! It is an air defense system of the country that includes units of all Defense Forces capable of conducting air fire, and infantry, sailors, and helicopters…”
This all comes as Zelensky has refused to heed public calls from the Biden administration to lower the age at which men can be mobilized from 25, where it currently stands, to 18, citing the sensitivities of sending younger men to fight in a society that already faces a demographic crisis.
For what appears to be the first time in the history of warfare, Ukraine unleashed a combined-arms attack on Russian forces using only aerial and ground drones.
Speaking on national TV, Sergeant Volodymyr Dehtiarov, spokesperson for the Khartiia Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, said “dozens of units of robotic and unmanned equipment” supported by surveillance drones were used in the assault, the Kyiv Independent reported. The attack took place near the village of Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv.
Dehtiarov said the drones included uncrewed ground vehicles (UGV) equipped with machine guns and kamikaze FPV drones. He did not say when this engagement took place.
“The Battle of Lyptsi is an important step in the transformation of the character of war from a purely human endeavor to something quite different in the 21st century,” retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, now a military analyst, postulated on Twitter. “But none of the battlefield functions envisioned for uncrewed systems will be effective without the transformation of military institutions that wish to use them. This includes armies but also the civilian bureaucracies that support them.”
“This attack not only represents a tactical breakthrough but also illustrates a broader trend in modern conflict: the increasing automation of battlefields,” according to Laurent Le Mentec, Director of the French risk management consulting firm Vision Sûreté Française. He was the first to report the all-drone assault.
”While other nations are watching these developments closely, Ukraine is establishing itself as a full-scale testing ground for technologically advanced warfare,” he noted. “The drones and UGVs used in this attack were reportedly mostly indigenously designed or modified from commercial equipment. This ability to tinker and adapt off-the-shelf technologies for military use has become a signature of the Ukrainian forces.”
In the fall of 2022, Ukraine launched a massive drone boat attack on Sevastopol harbor, changing the face of naval warfare. Since then, Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) have proven to be a scourge to Russian naval operations in and around the Black Sea. They also present real threats to vessels in port, as well as bridges and other coastal infrastructure.
Now Russia is taking a page from that playbook. Its navy is creating a new training course for USV operators that includes nighttime drills to mimic Ukrainian USV attacks and defenses, according to the Russian RU1 news outlet.
In another iteration of the ongoing drone wars, Russians are complaining that Ukrainians are hacking into drones and causing engine shutdowns.
“In FPV chats and channels, information is again coming in that cases of drone disarm in the air have become more frequent,” the Russian Cuckoo’s Nest drone unit claimed on Telegram. “The [Ukrainians] hohols are operating, affecting birds with ELRS firmware. They replace data packets and turn off the engines. The drone turns over in the air and falls. Additionally, they try to get into the video menu and turn off the camera or screw up – set the reverse reflection of the image.”
Cuckoo’s Nest was referring to ExpressLRS, a radio protocol that allows drones using it to communicate with a matched receiver.
The Telegram channel groused that this problem is caused because Russian operators have not updated important drone communications systems “for months.”
Uncertain of future aid from the U.S. and its allies, Ukraine is developing several indigenous weapons systems, including one it claims can eventually hit Moscow, roughly 300 miles north of the front lines.
Among them is a cruise missile called Trembita, named for the Ukrainian Alpine horn, The Economist reported on Monday.
“We might miss our target,” Serhiy Biryukov, who heads the missile’s ragtag crew of volunteer engineers, told the publication, “but we’ll fly the thing so low above Russian trenches they will shit themselves.”
“Trembita’s engine is a modern $200 remake of the pulsejet first used on the German V-1 bomb in 1944,” The Economist noted. “The engine tube is rough-and-ready. A more stylish grey rectangular casing hangs below it, hiding the missile’s guidance system and warhead. The basic Trembita flies at 400 km/h with a range of 200km. A larger and more powerful model is being developed to reach Moscow. Serial production is set to follow the final field tests. Getting this far has taken the enthusiasts just a year and a half—a feat in a field where getting from the drawing board to the battlefield usually takes many years.”
Ukraine has developed other long-range strike weapons that could potentially reach Moscow, including the Palyanytsya and Peklo missile drones and, in the future, the Hrim -2 ballistic missile.
Ukraine launched a drone attack Saturday morning against targets in the Russian city of Kazan in the Tatarstan region, about 600 miles from the front lines. As a result, six drones hit residential buildings, one hit an industrial facility and one was shot down over a river, according to the press service of Tatarstan’s governor, Rustam Minnikhanov. Officials reported no injuries from the strike, however, media reports indicated that three people suffered cuts from shattered window glass.
A day after the attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened revenge.
“Whoever, and however much they try to destroy, they will face many times more destruction themselves and will regret what they are trying to do in our country,” Putin fumed.
Germany announced new deliveries of military aid for Ukraine. Among other items, the packages included 15 additional Leopard-1A5 main battle tanks and spare parts in a joint project with Denmark. That brings to the total to 103. Also going to Ukraine are 30 more Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAP) for a total of 103, one new IRIS-T SLM air defense system, for a total of six, one new IRIS-T SLS air defense system for a total of five, two additional Patriot air defense system launchers for a total of four, two more Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (SPAAG) for a total of 57. The package also includes 65,000 more 35mm rounds of ammunition for the Gepards, 52,000 additional rounds of 155mm ammunition for a total of 358,000, an unspecified number of AIM-9L/I1 Sidewinder missiles and 68 more surveillance drones of various types.
Ukraine also received what the Germans described as “12 Kinetic Defense Vehicles.” We reached out to the German Bundeswehr and manufacturer Diehl for more details.
While much of Ukraine’s Navy was captured at the beginning of the war, it still has Gyurza-M class armored artillery patrol boats. A rare glimpse of one was recently captured on video. The vessels now typically serve as anti-drone air defense pickets in the Black Sea.
Last month, we told you that North Korea’s Type 73 machine guns may be entering the fight in Ukraine. The weapon, chambered in the Russian 7.62x54mmR cartridge, is a unique blending of Cold War Soviet and Czech designs. Photos of it reportedly in Kursk appeared online in November. On Sunday, a video emerged of a Russian soldier examining one at an unspecified range.
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com