Detailed information is currently scarce, but there are now numerous reports that Israel has launched a new ground operation in Lebanon. The scale of this remains to be seen, with accounts earlier today of several small-scale raids across the border into Lebanon. For some months now, a larger Israeli operation in Lebanon had been expected, with Israeli officials apparently recently telling their U.S. counterparts that a “limited” ground operation was about to begin.
Multiple U.S. media reports state that Israel has told the United States that its ground operation in Lebanon could start “imminently.” Meanwhile, at least one U.S. official has said that Israel appeared to be planning a major ground invasion, but that the plan now appears to have been “significantly scaled down.”
There were also reports earlier today suggesting that Israel may not yet have made a final decision on a broader operation. Meanwhile, there are eyewitness accounts, videos, and photos posted to social media that show the rapidly ballooning deployment of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) units — including tanks and armored fighting vehicles — close to the border with Lebanon.
The IDF has declared the areas around the communities of Metula, Misgav Am, and Kfar Giladi in northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon, as a “closed military zone.” Entry to areas around those areas is now prohibited, the IDF has said.
Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant said today that the “next phase of the war against Hezbollah will begin soon,” while in separate comments he told troops in the north of the country that “we will use all of our capabilities — including you.”
The Lebanese Army appears to have made the conclusion that an Israeli ground offensive is more likely than not.
There are now plenty of reports indicating that Lebanese troops are withdrawing from the border area close to Israel. Citing local residents and security sources, Reuters reports that the Lebanese military is pulling back from “several positions on the southern border with Israel,” although a Lebanese Army spokesperson would neither confirm nor deny such reports.
A Lebanese security source told Reuters that Lebanese troops have pulled back to at least three miles north of the border, while another source talked of the troops having been pulled back to larger army bases in the area.
The Lebanese Armed Forces are controlled by the central government and have not been engaged in military operations against Israel, in contrast to the Hezbollah militia, which had entered a new intensive round of fighting with Israel starting nearly a year ago.
For its part, Hezbollah has been launching rockets into Israel from the border area in recent days, while Lebanon came under heavy Israeli aerial attack. On Friday, Israeli airstrikes on Beirut killed Hassan Nasrallah, the veteran leader of Hezbollah, and much of the group’s leadership. You can read our coverage of this decapitation strike here.
While Hezbollah says it will continue to fight Israel, the fighting potential of the group has been severely degraded in the past couple of weeks. Israeli decapitation operations, including exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, as well as airstrikes, have removed not only Nasrallah but also many of his associates. Key facilities housing Hezbollah weaponry and personnel have also been relentlessly struck. The success of these operations may well be reflected in the scale of the ground offensive that looks set to follow.
Another key factor is Israel’s stated plan to return tens of thousands of Israelis who had been evacuated from towns along the northern border with Lebanon when Hezbollah stepped up its campaign of rocket attacks. With the return of these evacuees having been approved by Israeli officials, a major military operation against the militant group began to look much more likely.
The U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and other senior U.S. officials have been monitoring and responding to “unfolding events in the Middle East” over the weekend, according to Matthew Miller, a U.S. State Department spokesperson. Miller today said he will let Israel “speak to its own military operations”, including the “timing, purpose, tempo” of those operations.
Whatever shape those operations take, it now appears more likely than not that the conflict in the Middle East has reached a critical new juncture.
Update, 15:00 p.m. PST:
Israel appears to have launched a significant new wave of airstrikes across Lebanon, with Beirut again among the targets, as reports from Israel now suggest the country’s security cabinet has approved the next phase of the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
There are reports of at least two airstrikes in Dahieh, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was killed last Friday. The latest raids are said to have come around 30 minutes after the Israeli military issued evacuation orders for residents close to what it said were buildings housing Hezbollah installations.
According to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, 95 people have been killed in Israeli strikes across the country today.
The worsening situation in Lebanon has led to other countries launching evacuation efforts for their citizens there.
The U.K. government has announced a charter evacuation flight for Britons to leave Lebanon. The U.K. Foreign Office said the flight would leave Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy issued the following statement:
“The situation in Lebanon is volatile and has potential to deteriorate quickly. The safety of British nationals in Lebanon continues to be our utmost priority. That’s why the U.K. government is chartering a flight to help those wanting to leave. It is vital that you leave now as further evacuation may not be guaranteed.”
The German government has already started to fly some of its citizens home from Lebanon. Around 9:00 p.m. local time this evening, a German Air Force Airbus A321 aircraft arrived in Berlin, carrying German citizens on behalf of the Federal Foreign Office.
Members of the cabinet gave their approval during a meeting of the Israeli security cabinet this evening, the Jerusalem Post reported.
UPDATE: 8:00 PM EST—
The IDF’s statement on the operation is as follows:
“In accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel. The IDF is operating according to a methodical plan set out by the General Staff and the Northern Command which IDF soldiers have trained and prepared for in recent months. The Israeli Air Force and IDF Artillery are supporting the ground forces with precise strikes on military targets in the area. These operations were approved and carried out in accordance with the decision of the political echelon. Operation “Northern Arrows” will continue according to the situational assessment and in parallel to combat in Gaza and in other arenas. The IDF is continuing to operate to achieve the goals of the war and is doing everything necessary to defend the citizens of Israel and return the citizens of northern Israel to their homes.”
A car was hit in Damascus, Syria, with unconfirmed reports that it was a targeted assassination:
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com