Israel and Iran are ratcheting up the rhetoric ahead of Jerusalem’s coming response to Tehran’s massive Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack involving about 180 ballistic missiles.
The Israeli retaliation operation against Iran “will be more forceful than initially planned, due to drone attack on PM Netanyahu’s home,” Israeli media reported. An explosive drone launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon hit Netanyahu’s private home in the coastal town of Caesarea on Saturday, Axios reported. He was not home and there were no casualties.
However, the Israeli cabinet still has yet to authorize Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yuval Gallant to make a decision on an attack on Iran, Israel’s N12News reported on Twitter.
Iran, meanwhile, threatened a large response to any Israeli attack.
“Iran has made up its mind about the targets it may hit in a defensive response to the Israeli regime’s possible strike,” Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told reporters on Monday, according to the official Iranian Tasnim news outlet.
“Iran’s finger is on the trigger as a greater surprise is awaiting the Zionists,” Tasnim stated. An Iranian military source told the publication that “if the Zionist regime strikes Iran’s military sites, Tehran’s response will be ‘decisive’ and ‘beyond the estimates of Zionists.’”
If Israel targets Iran’s nuclear sites, “Iran will react and also reconsider its nuclear policies, the source added.”
In addition, Iran warned Israel “that if it targets Iran’s facilities and infrastructures in any manner, Iran will by no means remain committed to maintaining the scope, type and intensity of its measures at the previous level.”
The increasing bellicosity comes days after U.S. President Joe Biden expressed optimism that tensions could be reduced in the wake of last week’s Israeli killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Biden told reporters that he knew when and how Israel would attack but declined to elaborate as he spoke with reporters during a visit to Germany.
“Yes and yes,” he told reporters when asked if he knew the plans.
“No and no,” he responded when asked if would reveal them.
The death of Sinwar was an opportunity to “deal with Israel and Iran in a way that ends the conflict for a while … that stops the back and forth,” he added.
One of the U.S. Army’s seven prized Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries flown to Israel ahead of a looming attack on Iran “is in place,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters before arriving in Ukraine on Monday, according to Reuters. Israeli media last week claimed that Jerusalem asked for a second THAAD system. We reached out to the Pentagon for more details and will update this story with any pertinent information provided.
Though Biden said he thought a new round of attacks between Israel and Iran could be averted, Kirby on Monday told reporters that the administration is not hopeful about a quick resolution to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, kicked off Oct. 7, 2023 by the Palestinian group’s incursion into southern Israel that killed 1,200 and resulted in 250 being taken captive. The ongoing Israeli response has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.
“I cannot sit here today and tell you that that negotiations are about to restart in Doha or Cairo or anywhere else for that matter,” Kirby said in response to a question from CNN’s Kayla Tausche Monday.
Biden is “deeply concerned” about the disclosure of classified documents regarding Israel’s plans for its retaliation against Iran that found their way into the public sphere, National Security communications spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday afternoon.
The White House could not say at the moment whether the documents were leaked or hacked.
“You can rest assured that he will be actively monitoring the progress of the investigative effort to figure out how this happened,” Kirby said.
The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on the Iranian-linked Middle East Spectator Telegram channel.
“An informed source within the U.S. intelligence community has shared with us an extremely sensitive ‘top secret’ U.S. intelligence document from the NGIA, dated Oct, 15-16, detailing Israeli preparedness for an extensive strike inside Iran,” Middle East Spectator claimed.
One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGIA), “says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around,” according to CNN. “Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.”
The documents are meant to be seen only by the US and its ‘Five Eyes’ allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom,” according to CNN, adding that the US is investigating the leak,
A US official said the investigation “is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies,” the network noted. “The FBI declined to comment.”
While the U.S. said the documents are real, and there are no indications they are not, there is always the possibility that even parts of them were disclosed on purpose as part of an information operation.
Israel gave the U.S. a document last week “with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon and allow displaced civilians from both sides of the border to return to their homes,” Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials and two Israeli officials.
Israeli officials said the paper came out of discussions Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer – a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – had with the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Israel Defense Forces “about the principles Israel demands to be part of any diplomatic solution to end the war with Hezbollah,” the publication reported.
One Israeli demand “is that the IDF be allowed to engage in ‘active enforcement’ to make sure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure in the areas of southern Lebanon that are close to the border,” Axios reported, citing an Israeli official. The official added that “Israel also demands its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space.”
The Israeli Air Force carried out airstrikes in Lebanon on what it claims are financial institutions funding Hezbollah. The strikes were conducted in “Beirut, southern Lebanon, and deep within Lebanese territory,” the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said Monday on Telegram.
The funds, “which Hezbollah used for terror activities, were stored by the Al-Qard al-Hassan Association, which directly funds Hezbollah’s terror activities, including the purchase of weapons and payments to operatives in Hezbollah’s military wing,” the IDF stated. “The Hezbollah terrorist organization stores billions of dollars in the association’s branches, including money that was directly held under the name of the terrorist organization.”
The IDF claimed that before launching the attacks, “numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including advance warnings issued via different platforms to the civilian population in the area.”
The airstrikes, which took place near Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, did not stop Middle East Airlines from landing and departing during the attack.
There were “11 airstrikes so far and COUNTING targeting an area near the eastern terminal of Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, also Ghobeiry in the Dahiyeh southern neighborhood of Beirut, as well as in Hay el-Sellom and Burj al-Barajneh,” Al Jazeera reported.
As daylight broke, the level of destruction became clear, with several buildings destroyed, which you can see in the following video.
In the aftermath of airstrikes, people are seen in the video below being evacuated from a building on Hamra Street
Another video from that street shows clashes between displaced people and security forces over the evacuation of a building there. Protesters blocked the road in front of the building with burning tires.
Large sections of Beirut have been turned into burning rubble by Israeli airstrikes. The following video shows several buildings destroyed and some still burning.
The UN claims more than a million people in Lebanon have been forced to flee their homes in the wake of the growing Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
The residents are leaving their homes as the result of fighting and bombardment and moving to larger towns, then suburbs of cities like Beirut and Saida “often on very, very short notice because the threat and the danger was so imminent,” said Ivo Freijsen, the UN Refugees Agency representative in Lebanon.
The video below shows destroyed buildings and a scene of people on the street as an air raid siren blares.
The United Arab Emirates sent a dozen planes filled with humanitarian aid to Beirut.
The carnage has spread to northern Lebanon, a predominantly Christian area once thought of as a safe haven from the bloodshed.
“A dead baby inside a destroyed pickup truck; a child’s severed arm buried in nearby rubble; toddler clothing and books shredded; flies swarming as officials collected body parts, some too small for body bags ending up in clear ziplock bags,” was how NBC News described the aftermath of an airstrike Monday on the Lebanese Christian village of Aitou that Israel said had targeted a position held by Hezbollah.
“Pervading everything, the overwhelming stench of rotting flesh mixed with concrete dust at the scene where 23 people including two children were killed, according to local officials,” NBC News noted.
A small village just over the border from Israel was obliterated by dozens of tons of TNT, the IDF said.
Some 24 buildings were demolished in the village, according to video verified by The New York Times. The publication identified the village as Mhaibib, just over a mile from Israel’s northern border.
The IDF claims it used “dozens of tons of explosives” to blow up “an underground headquarters of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon this morning, which is located in front of the Kiryat Shmona area.”
The video shows the village being destroyed then cuts to Israeli troops cheering the explosions.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) told The Jerusalem Post on Monday that reports of Hezbollah paying UNIFIL members to use their positions in Lebanon are false.
Earlier Monday, Israel Hayom reported that Hezbollah forces captured by the IDF in southern Lebanon testified in their investigations that Hezbollah paid money to UNIFIL personnel to use their bases for operations.
“These sources, privy to the details, revealed that Hezbollah also took control of UNIFIL cameras in compounds near the Israeli border and utilized them for their own purposes,” Israel Hayom reported. “In light of these revelations and UNIFIL’s glaring failure to prevent Hezbollah’s entrenchment along the border Israel plans to rely primarily on commitments from the Lebanese army in any future arrangement with Lebanon, rather than on UNIFIL, which has proven ineffective over the years and is now accused of frequently collaborating with Hezbollah operatives.”
The UN, meanwhile, repeated its complaint that the IDF is striking UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon.
“Yet again, we remind the IDF and all actors of their obligations to ensure the safety and security of UN personnel and property and to respect the inviolability of UN premises at all times,” UNIFIL stated.
The mission also reiterated “that the violation of a UN site and damage to its assets constitutes a flagrant violation of international law and Security Council resolution 1701, the unanimously adopted text to end to a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah and chart a path towards security on the border between Israel and Lebanon.”
In addition, it stated that the Israeli army “has repeatedly asked UNIFIL to vacate its positions along the Blue Line and has deliberately damaged UN positions.”
Despite the pressure on the mission and troop-contributing countries, UNIFIL stressed that peacekeepers remain in all their positions, the mission’s statement said on Sunday.
“We will continue to carry out our mandated tasks of monitoring and reporting,” the statement concluded.
Troops from the IDF Golani Brigade are seen in combat in southern Lebanon. The video below shows the soldiers rolling through the area as well as engaging in a firefight in the rubble of one town.
One unit operating in southern Lebanon claims it found a weapons storage facility and a vehicle with a rocket launcher next to homes.
Soldiers from the 188th Brigade Combat Team, under the command of the 36th Division, “located and destroyed a weapons storage facility located in a residential neighborhood, adjacent to a house,” the IDF claimed. “The facility contained dozens of long- and short-range missiles, ammunition, mortars, machine guns, explosives, and medical equipment.”
At another location, the troops found and destroyed a Suzuki equipped with a 12-tubed multiple-launch rocket system.
“The vehicle was fully equipped and prepared to launch rockets towards Israeli communities,” according to the IDF.
Israeli tanks were spotted rolling into the Lebanese village of Aita al-Shaab, a little more than a half-mile east of the border.
Since the beginning of the ground maneuver in Lebanon, the IDF said on Telegram that seven Hezbollah brigade commanders, 21 battalion commanders, and 24 company commanders have been eliminated so far.
Additionally, the IDF said it struck “over 3,200 terror targets, including hundreds of weapons storage facilities, rocket launchers, anti-tank posts, terrorist infrastructure and command and control centers. Of these, approximately 300 targets were hit in the last 24 hours alone.”
The conflict is increasing tensions between Lebanon’s Christian and Muslim communities. Financial Times reported that many in that wartorn country feel Israel is trying to fan the flames to get Christians to rise up against Hezbollah.
“The Israelis are trying to make the Lebanese population turn against the Shia community,” Sami Atallah, director of Beirut-based think-tank The Policy Initiative, told the publication. “The Shia community feels really isolated. Hitting them in Christian areas is a recipe for civil strife.” “Reinforcing these suspicions,” FT noted, “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this month told Lebanese people to rise up against Hezbollah or face ‘a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza.’
Most Lebanese the publication spoke with scoffed at Netanyahu’s call to arms.
“He thinks we are so cheap that we will do what he tells us,” said hairdresser Anne-Marie, 36. She dislikes the Shia militant group. But “if I don’t like Hizbollah, that doesn’t mean I like Israel. That doesn’t mean I will side with my enemy against my fellow Lebanese.”
Hezbollah meanwhile continues to launch missiles, rockets and drones at Israel. The IDF said that over the past week, more than 30 drones launched toward Israel were intercepted by the IAF.
On Monday alone, the IAF said it intercepted five drones launched from Lebanon.
The IAF also intercepted Hezbollah drones off the coast. They also used Apache AH-64 helicopter gunships to attack them. You can see both in the videos below. U.S. Apache crews have practiced shooting down drones with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, which you can read more about here.
The following video taken last week shows an IAF AH-64 Apache attack helicopter chasing down a Hezbollah drone over northwestern Israel.
The IDF released video of the tunnel where the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had been hiding. Sinwar was considered the mastermind of the Oct. 7 2023 Hamas incursion of southern Israel. He was killed by Israeli troops last week after he was spotted above ground in Gaza.
Among other things, Israeli claims their troops found stacks of money Sinwar squirreled away.
Video was also released by the IDF that it says shows Sinwar and his family in the tunnel shortly before the Oct. 7 attacks.
Seven Israelis were arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran, Israel Police announced Monday, according to the Jerusalem Post.
Prosecutors allege that the suspects completed some 600 missions for Iran. including gathering intelligence on sensitive military and infrastructure sites and identifying potential human targets for Iran. Those targets included Ramat David Airbase, Nevatim Airbase, Glilot, and the Golani Brigade base where four soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah drone attack last week.
The suspects “were given maps of strategic sites from their handlers, including of the Golani Brigade base,” the State Attorney said.
The seven suspects are Jewish Israelis of Azeri origin from Haifa and Haifa’s bayside suburbs. Some are related, one is an AWOL soldier andn two are minors, police said, according to the publication. They have been in custody for 35 days.
The charges are anticipated to include assisting the enemy during wartime.
The spying “inflicted security damage on the state,” according to Israeli assessments, a senior Israel Security Agency (ISA) told the Jerusalem Post.
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com