While the Russian military continues to withdraw equipment and troops from Syria, Israel has continued its air raids, intended to further degrade what is left of the former Syrian Armed Forces’ fighting capacity. Israel bombarded Syria overnight with what was described by a U.K.-based war monitor group as “the heaviest strikes” in the area in more than a decade. Meanwhile, there are varied reports suggesting that Russian forces might vacate Syria within days, or within a month, although officials on both sides have stressed that negotiations are ongoing.
Overnight Israeli strikes on the Syrian coastal Tartus region targeted various sites including air defense units and surface-to-surface missile depots, according to the war monitor group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The same group said these were “the heaviest strikes in Syria’s coastal region since the start of strikes in 2012.”
The Israeli attack on a surface-to-surface missile depot close to the town of Bmalkah, around six miles inland, resulted in an enormous explosion, equivalent to a 3.1-magnitude earthquake, according to reports.
Outside of the Tartus region, Israel is also reported to have targeted missile launchers in the Hama area and radars at the military air base at Deir ez-Zor.
The ongoing campaign of Israeli strikes is designed to destroy regime weapons stockpiles to prevent them from falling into the hands of Islamist groups.
Last week, the Israeli military said it had conducted 350 strikes in Syria, destroying 80% of the strategic military capabilities left behind by the Bashar al-Assad regime.
The Israeli bombardment has led to protests from the new Syrian administration, led by a rebel coalition. The administration has also lodged a complaint with the U.N. Security Council about Israeli incursions into Syrian territory in the Golan Heights.
Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist group that led the offensive against the Assad regime, said the Israeli strikes “crossed red lines” but conceded that Syria was in no fit state to seek further conflict.
“Syria’s war-weary condition, after years of conflict and war, does not allow for new confrontations. The priority at this stage is reconstruction and stability, not being drawn into disputes that could lead to further destruction,” al-Jolani said in an interview with Syria TV.
Some more details have come to light on Assad’s rapid departure from Syria earlier this month. In a statement published on the Syrian presidency’s Telegram channel, Assad claimed he left Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base for Moscow on Dec. 8. He claims that he was evacuated from the air base as it came under drone attack, having left Damascus the same morning opposition fighters closed in on the capital.
The comment was Assad’s first in public since he was toppled from power by the rebel offensive.
Having propped up the Assad regime, Russia is continuing to withdraw military equipment and troops from Syria. TWZ has already reported on apparent Russian evacuations from Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. These movements have now been confirmed by different Western officials — including two from the United States.
However, those same officials, speaking to CNN, described the Russian withdrawal as “large-scale and significant,” but said it was unclear if the evacuation would be permanent.
With HTS now effectively in control in Syria, the fate of the Russian facilities — including Khmeimim Air Base and the naval base at Tartus — will be dependent on some kind of negotiated settlement between the rebel group and Moscow.
Recent imagery from Khmeimim suggests that Russia is using Ka-52 Hokum attack helicopters to provide armed overwatch while it moves assets out of the facility using cargo aircraft. At the same time, an aerostat has also appeared over the base to provide additional surveillance.
Other recent aircraft movements have involved the evacuation of Russian diplomatic personnel in Damascus as well as Belarusian and North Korean diplomats, using Russian Air Force flights out of Khmeimim.
“We don’t feel unsafe, we are hoping to make friendly relations with the new government as soon as it becomes a legitimate government,” a representative of the Russian military at Khmeimim told The Guardian today, in a rare interview.
“Neither side is making provocations and things have been fine,” the Russian military representative added.
There is also now growing evidence of Libya’s support for the Russian military exodus from Syria.
At least some of the Russian naval assets have been moved from Tartus to Libya, while there are reports that Moscow is stepping up pressure on Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar to allow Russia access to a port in Benghazi. This would provide Russia with an alternative naval installation on the Mediterranean, the importance of which we have discussed in the past. At least one Syrian-registered Il-76 Candid airlifter has also been noted in recent days operating between Syria and Libya, and other locations in Africa.
Should Russia end up leaving Syria altogether, Libya could well provide an alternative hub for the Russian military to provide access to the Mediterranean and as a transshipment point for other Russian interests in Africa.
Officially, at least, Russia says it’s still to decide on the fate of its military bases in Syria. The Kremlin today said it was in contact with those in charge of the country.
Over the weekend, four Syrian officials told Reuters that although Russia was withdrawing its military from the front lines in northern Syria and from posts in the Alawite Mountains, it was not entirely leaving its two main bases.
The departure of Russian air defense equipment from Syria is also allowing U.S. military aircraft to operate over the country with a greater degree of freedom. This was confirmed today by Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder. Among the key systems that have departed are S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile systems previously based at Khmeimim.
“One of the big factors that has changed in Syria is the airspace, in the sense that previously you had Syrian regime and Russian air defenses, which would preclude in many cases our ability or desirability to go into those areas” to conduct anti-ISIS operations, Ryder told reporters. “It is a much more permissible environment now, in that regard.”
Since the fall of the Assad regime, the U.S. military has flown several rounds of airstrikes targeting ISIS camps and operatives in Syria.
For now, it remains to be seen what kind of presence the Russian military will have in Syria longer term. These are still early days in a tentative relationship being established between Moscow and the new administration in Syria; after all, Russian forces bombed HTS and other rebel groups, as well as much of the Syrian population for nearly a decade. However, should basing options in Syria fall through, it may be the case that Libya is on hand to provide some alternatives for the Russian military to retain its presence in the region.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com