What will happen to highly strategic Russian air and naval bases in Syria is now very much an open question following the downfall of long-time strongman Bashar Al Assad. Though Russia has pulled back forces, it is unclear whether there are plans to abandon the crucial facilities for good. There are now signs that the Kremlin could be looking to cut a deal with the same rebels it has spent the better part of the last decade fighting.
The current situation in Syria is extremely fluid following the final and total collapse this weekend of the brutal decades-old Assad regime. It took the Command of Military Operations rebel coalition, with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) at its helm, some two weeks to steamroll its way from areas under its control in the northwest to the capital Damascus. Other rebel factors, including U.S.-backed predominantly Kurdish forces in the east, had subsequently launched their own offensives.
Rebel forces are now in at least de facto control of Syria’s Latakia and Tartus regions, which are home to Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval base, respectively.
“Yesterday, the opposition took full control of the Latakia province, including the cities of Tartus and Jableh [near Khmeimim],” Russian state media outlet TASS reported earlier today citing an unnamed “local” source. “The opposition’s armed forces did not and have no plans to penetrate the Russian military bases, which continue to operate normally.”
Satellite imagery The War Zone previously obtained from Planet Labs of Khmeimim Air Base taken Dec. 7 showed signs of a possible evacuation operation underway. MiG-31 Foxhound aircraft that had been forward-deployed to Khmeimim have reportedly departed, but other Russian tactical jets may still be there.
Video footage has also emerged since the end of last week appearing to show Russian ground forces relocating from Khmeimim and/or other points north to Tartus further to the south.
Russian naval vessels have also left Tartus, but satellite imagery indicates that they are currently holding just offshore rather than departing the area entirely. Whether or not Russia expects to continue operating from Tartus in the long term, sending the ships to sea would be a prudent force protection measure given the current uncertainty in the country. The ships in port are a huge and relatively defenseless target just sitting there. Even if the Kremlin has secured some security guarantees for major rebel groups, the vessels are still vulnerable to actors that would take advantage of the chaotic security situation.
What Russia’s exact planning is vis-a-vis Syria is currently unknown. Maintaining access to Khmeimim and Tartus, if feasible, would be a top priority for the Kremlin. As The War Zone has previously explored in detail, the bases are of great importance to Russia well beyond its operations in Syria. The Russian government has also spent considerable resources to expand their abilities to serve as strategic regional hubs for air and naval operations, as well as key logistics nodes, especially for activities across Africa. Tartus also notably provides the Russian Navy with its only current warm-water port facility with direct access to the Mediterranean. The airfield offers a similarly unique point of power projection for the Kremlin.
Russia’s immediate bargaining position is complicated by the fact that it intervened militarily in 2015 on Assad’s behalf and very actively fought for years to keep that regime in power. Russian operations in Syria were characterized by at best indiscriminate attacks on areas full of civilians and at worst deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, especially hospitals. The Kremlin also worked to shield Assad’s regime from broader international repercussions, including over its use of chemical weapons. Russian combat aircraft were flying sorties against anti-regime forces as recently as last week. There were also reports of ships in port at Tartus and/or forces ashore there firing missiles at rebels as they advanced.
The Kremlin has made a further statement in this regard by giving Assad asylum in Russia, at least for now. Proof of this remains elusive. Regardless, doing so does give the Kremlin an additional bargaining chip as many groups are likely to be looking for accountability of various kinds from the former Syrian dictator.
On top of all that, Russia officially designated HTS, which now says it is looking to form a transitional Syrian government, as a terrorist group in 2020. HTS evolved from the Al Nusra Front, which at one point was Al Qaeda’s main franchise in Syria but claimed to have broken away from the international terrorist organization in 2016. The United States and United Kingdom, among others, have also officially designated HTS as a terrorist group. The U.S. has a $10 million bounty out on Abu Mohammad al-Jolani himself.
HTS is also just one of a number of rebel factions that control substantial territory across Syria and which Russia has listed as terrorists over the years. This includes the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the east, which American authorities say they will continue to support ostensibly to guard against ISIS taking advantage of the current situation. Over the weekend, U.S. B-52 bombers, F-15 Strike Eagle combat jets, and A-10 Warthog ground attack aircraft struck dozens of ISIS-linked targets, underscoring that ongoing mission. However, over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump also declared “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT” in a post about Syria on social media and has pushed for withdrawing U.S. forces from there entirely in the past.
Israel, which has ties to rebel groups in the southwestern end of Syria, has also now deployed forces across the Syrian border and embarked on a massive campaign of airstrikes aimed at preventing rebel groups from seizing more of the military assets of the old Assad regime. Syrian ports and sites linked to the country’s chemical weapons program are among the targets Israel has struck.
Turkish-based forces in Syria’s northwestern regions are another factor to consider. Moscow has long had an on-again-off-again relationship with Ankara, particularly with regard to the Syrian civil war. The HTS-led advance from the north notably marked the final collapse of a ceasefire deal Russian and Turkish authorities had brokered in 2020. CNN Turk reported yesterday, without appearing to cite any sources, that Russia had requested Turkish help in withdrawing forces from the country, but also that the Kremlin would retain its Khmeimim and Tartus bases.
At the same time, there are signs that the Kremlin is already looking, if possible, to engage with whatever regime now emerges in Syria.
“It’s premature to talk about it yet,” Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin, told reporters earlier today, according to Reuters. “This is all a subject for discussion with those who will be in power in Syria.”
“Of course, everything is being done now that is necessary and everything that is possible in order to get in touch with those who can deal with security,” he added. “And, of course, our military is also taking all necessary precautions.”
“We are in dialogue with Ankara and other regional states, including on Syrian affairs,” Peskov further noted. “Indeed, Syria is going to have a very difficult period now, due to instability. And, of course, it is very important to maintain a dialogue with all regional countries here. We are determined to do this.”
There are reports that Russia may have secured continued access to Khmeimim and Tartus for at least some amount of time as part of a larger deal with various regional actors regarding the political transition in Syria that also included spiriting Assad out of the country.
Other reporting has indicated that the Russian government is otherwise softening its language toward anti-Assad groups, including HTS. The Syrian Embassy in Moscow is also now flying the revolutionary flag in place of the old regime one.
For its part, HTS could be interested in working with Russia, as well as China and others, as it looks to solidify its control.
“This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers [that left] Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” HTS leader Ahmed Hussein Al Shar’a, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (or simply as Jolani), said in a victory speech yesterday, according to CNN. Jolani did not mention any other country by name. Iran had also been a major supporter of Assad both directly and through the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
For groups like HTS, despite past history, Russia, along with China (which has called for a “political solution” to Syria’s future), may offer the possibility of more pragmatic and pliable partners, at least in the near term. The United States and United Kingdom notably say they have no current plans to de-list HTS as a terrorist group.
What happens now to Russia’s prized bases in Syria, and its broader influence in the country, is uncertain, but there are signs that the Kremlin is not yet completely over.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com