A day after entering Aleppo, rebels have reportedly seized most of the city, Syria’s second-largest, pushed south toward Hama and captured much of Idlib province on Saturday in their surprise offensive launched on Thursday. In reaction, the Russian Air Force bombarded rebel positions in Aleppo, the first time they’ve struck the city in any robust capacity in the better part of a decade . Meanwhile, there are unconfirmed reports of a coup attempt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the capital of Damascus.
You can catch up with our previous report on the rebel advance here.
Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, this offensive is its first major attack against the regime in four years and comes as Iran’s top proxy force Hezbollah and Russia – Assad’s biggest backers – are embroiled in their own conflicts. Hezbollah, which supports the Assad regime, has been greatly degraded after open conflict with Israel and some Russian resources have been realigned away from Syria to fight in Ukraine. HTS, formerly an al-Qaida-affiliated group known as al-Nusra Front, has since cut its ties to the notorious Sunni jihadi organization.
Videos emerging on social media showed rebel fighters throughout Aleppo.
“Assad forces completely collapse in northern and central Syria,” rebel commanders said in a WhatsApp message late Saturday, according to The Washington Post.
Assad on Saturday vowed to “defend [Syria’s] stability and territorial integrity in the face of all terrorists and their backers,” according to the BBC. “[The country] is capable, with the help of its allies and friends, of defeating and eliminating them, no matter how intense their terrorist attacks are,” his office quoted him as saying.
The Syrian strongman is getting help in the form of the aforementioned Russian airstrikes on rebel positions in Aleppo. Russian tactical jets and attack helicopters have been active from Khmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia, since 2015, providing vital support to the regime in Damascus. The bombardment reportedly resulted in civilian casualties, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based watchdog organization monitoring the conflict.
“At least 16 civilians were killed and 20 others were injured in a horrific massacre carried out by fighter jets believed to be Russian, targeting a gathering of people at Al-Basel Roundabout in Aleppo city,” SOHR claimed “The number of civilians and combatants, who were killed in Idlib and Aleppo countryside during the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation which started in the early hours of November 27, has increased to 327.”
Aleppo has already been badly ravaged by years of war. It was first captured by rebel forces in 2012 and it became the site of a months-long siege in 2016. Russia and Syrian aircraft carried out constant air strikes that destroyed entire neighborhoods as Syrian regime forces fought to recapture the city of roughly two million residents.
HTS also said on Saturday that it had taken control of several areas on the outskirts of Hama, a government-controlled city and Syria’s fourth-largest. The rebels took over regime positions in at least 15 villages and towns, according to SOHR.
“This approach coincided with consecutive withdrawals by the regime forces from positions in Hama City, Hama Military Airport and several other positions, while several members of a military convoy of the regime fled,” SOHR reported. “Meanwhile, nearly 15 military convoys withdrew from Hama towards Homs.”
The status of control over Hama remains unclear and the city could still remain at least partially contested. Regardless, the airbase there that was used by Russia and the regime as under rebel control, as is the main airport in Aleppo.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jawlani vowed to fight on to Damascus.
The HTS-led offensive includes other allied factions, including Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups. After HTS fighters flooded out of their base in the rebel-held Idlib countryside, the northwest of Syria was scene to some of the fiercest fighting seen in the country for several years. As it pushed south toward Hama, HTS had reportedly captured a number of regime troops, which you can see in the video below.
By Saturday, the rebels had secured full control over Idlib province, seizing strategic towns such as Ma’arrat al-Nu’man and Khan Sheikhoun, according to Iranian media.
As they gobbled up territory and sent regime forces not the run, HTS reportedly captured a large amount of weaponry along the way.
The stunning collapse of Syria’s Russian-backed forces has reportedly prompted Moscow to sack Gen. Sergei Kisel, the leader of Russian troops in Syria.
Complicating matters, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have also entered Aleppo.
“The Kurdish forces have been deployed in the towns of Nubl and Al-Zahraa in the north-western suburbs of Aleppo city, following the withdrawal of the Iranian-backed militias from both towns, as well as the deployment of Kurdish forces in Aleppo International Airport and neighborhoods in Aleppo suburbs following the withdrawal of regime forces from them,” according to SOHR. “Since last night, Nubl and Al-Zahraa towns have witnessed mass displacement by residents towards Al-Ashrafiyah neighborhood, several areas in the eastern countryside of Aleppo and other areas outside the province such as Homs and Hama.”
Though some forces loyal to Assad have largely fled wide swaths of territory without putting up a fight, it appears they may be massing for a stand at Hama, likely backed by Russia and Iran’s proxies.
“Syrian troops are positioned at a key elevation in Hama, known as Hamdella, specifically on Zien al-Abedine hill,” the official Iranian Press TV news outlet reported on Telegram.
The Syrian Arab Army, Assad’s ground forces, are moving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other equipment north toward Hama. There is an expectation of a major clash there in the coming hours.
Amid the fighting taking place in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama provinces, claims about a coup attempt against Assad emerged. Video posted on social media purporting to show gunfire near the headquarters near the presidential palace. It is alleged to have been led by Syrian State Security Director General Hosam Louqa.
Officials from Iran have pushed back on those claims.
Hossein Akbari, the Iranian Ambassador to Syria, said there was no military coup in Damascus nor any attempt to detain Assad, the official Iranian Shafaq news agency reported.
“The news published by some Iranian online platforms about a coup in Damascus surprised us,” Akbari stated, “The Syrian army knows what needs to be done. This sedition will be crushed, God willing.”
A reporter for Tasnim, another official Iranian news outlet, said the streets of Damascus are calm and called the claims “a psychological operation by the terrorists and their supporters to break the resistance and advance further.”
The War Zone cannot confirm any of these claims
The ongoing offensive against the regime is one of the most serious challenges Assad has faced since the Syrian civil war began in 2011 when regime forces responded to Arab Spring protests with deadly force. That ignited years of bloodshed, forcing some 14 million Syrians to flee their homes, about half to places elsewhere in the country.
The vacuum created by all this conflict has turned Syria into a regional crisis, drawing in troops from Turkey, Kurdish forces from Iraq and Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah fighters. Israel routinely bombs Iranian troops and weapons concentrations in Syria.
Jerusalem is watching the rebel advances in Syria with considerable wariness, as intelligence chiefs told the political echelon developments in Syria could ultimately spell trouble for Israel, according to Israeli media.
“Referring to a consultation hurriedly convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday evening with key figures in the defense establishment…intelligence officials assessing that ‘Iranian infrastructure in Syria has been harmed, and much of it has been captured by the rebels,’” the Times of Israel reported.
Netanyahu was reportedly said that Hezbollah’s attention will now be shifted to Syria, and “so will its forces, in order to defend the Assad regime.”
Israeli intelligence officials are concerned that Assad’s fall could allow the “strategic capabilities” of his regime to fall into the jihadists’ hands. The prime concern relates to “the remnants of chemical weapons,” according to the Times of Israel.
Amid all this, the U.S. maintains a presence near Deir Ezzor in the north officially to continue the fight in a coalition against ISIS, which established a so-called “caliphate” in large portions of Syria and Iraq in the wake of years of conflict.
Saturday night, the White House said the U.S. “has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization…We will also continue to fully defend and protect U.S. personnel and U.S. military positions, which remain essential to ensuring that ISIS can never again resurge in Syria.”
As we previously mentioned, there appears to be a major fight looming in and around the city of Hama. How much longer Assad can hold on is a lingering question, exacerbated by the fact that his two main backers have their own troubles siphoning off resources otherwise available for Syria.
Russia is bogged down in a nearly three-year-old war in Ukraine, forcing it to redeploy capabilities and personnel that were previously being used in support of the Syrian regime. Russian interests in Syria include the aforementioned Khmeimim Air Base, as well as access to port facilities at Tartus. These two bases serve as the only Russian facilities of their kind in the Mediterranean, making them highly strategic but also symbolic prizes that Moscow gained in exchange for saving Assad.
Iran, meanwhile, has seen its proxy Hezbollah, which has a substantial presence is Syria, severely weakened by Israel, and the Israeli Air Force has continued to pound Iranian and Iranian-proxy targets in Syria.
The HTS-led offensive has been as stunning as it has been swift. Whether it has the troops, equipment and logistical tail to not only push through Hama, but further south to Homs and eventually Damascus is something we will learn more about in the coming days. And while a lightning-fast blitz may be impressive, holding the territory gained against regrouped Syrian-Russia-Iranian-backed forces will be no easy task.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com