As the anti-Assad rebel forces’ surprise counteroffensive against regime forces stretches into its fifth day, Russia and Syria have stepped up their aerial bombardment campaign to slow it down. That appears to be having some effect on what until now had been a lightning-quick advance. Adding to the challenge, forces supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad continue to pour into the Hama region to create a defensive line against the advance led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). To further assist the regime, hundreds of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia fighters have crossed the border to join the fight.
The dramatic HTS advance “has somewhat slowed in the past 24 hours,” according to Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu, reporting from the Turkish-Syrian border.
“The advances by the Syrian opposition continue on the battlefront, but not as fast as before,” Koseoglu said. “The acceleration is down as the diplomatic efforts to discuss the crisis have risen within the last two days.”
Syrian government forces “appeared to be regrouping to counterattack Monday,” The Washington Post noted.
Russian and Syrian airstrikes are taking a toll on the forces aligned with HTS, a U.S.-designated terror organization. It was formally an al-Qaida-linked group known as al-Nusra Front that has since cut its ties with the Sunni jihadis.
“Syrian regime and Russian warplanes targeted the Baghdad Station neighborhood in Aleppo city with airstrikes today,” the White Helmets, a Syrian opposition-run rescue group, claimed on X. There were also airstrikes on targets elsewhere in Aleppo and in Idlib province as well, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based watchdog organization monitoring the conflict. At least 25 people were killed in the air strikes, the White Helmets said on social media early on Monday.
Assad’s forces also claimed to have fired a Tochka, or SS-21 Scarab, a Soviet-era mobile short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), against rebel forces, reportedly for the first time. The missile targeted positions in Idlib province, according to the official Iranian Press TV news outlet. However, the date of the launch and its location are unknown.
While the rebels were being struck from the air, the regime “sent large reinforcements in the past few hours and set a strict defense line in Taybat Al-Imam city and the towns of Khattab and Suran in the northern countryside of Hama and the cities of Al-Suqaylabiyah and Mahrada,” SOHR reported on Monday.
As of Monday morning, the lines near Hama appeared to have stabilized, with both sides reportedly gearing up for a major battle in or around that city, Syria’s fourth-largest. The video below shows Syrian reinforcements rushing to the area in convoys that include the Golan improvised artillery rocket (IRAM) system, an unguided munition fired by multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).
You can get a sense of who is controlling territory from this map below. However, the situation continues to develop.
In addition to help from the Russian Air Force and Iranian-backed proxies inside Syria, Assad is also being assisted by Iranian-backed militias from Iraq. Reuters reported that hundreds of those troops crossed the border.
Meanwhile, a U.S. defense official pushed back against claims that U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthogs have operated in Syria and killed a large number of Iraqi militia fighters that crossed over from Iraq.
“That did not happen,” a U.S. defense official told The War Zone Monday morning.
The offensive has not come without a price, though, with casualty figures varying widely depending on the source. More than 240 rebel fighters have been killed in this operation, according to SOHR. Regime-aligned sources claim 1,300 rebel fighters have been killed, according to Press TV. In addition, SOHR also claims that about 140 regime troops and their proxies have been killed along with more than 60 civilians. The War Zone cannot independently verify these claims.
Meanwhile, rebel forces continued pushing south from Aleppo and reportedly seized more territory in Hama province.
HTS and its allies have also vowed to expand their pocket of control elsewhere. In a recent video, they said they were going to push toward the city of Manbij, about 50 miles northeast of Aleppo.
The rebels, who do not have significant crewed aviation assets, have been largely relying on drones to hit regime targets behind the lines.
HTS and factions operating under the banner of ‘Deterrence of Aggression’ …attacked, with drones, a large gathering of military command of regime forces in Zein Al-Abiden mountain to the north of Hama city, amid unconfirmed reports on casualties among regime forces,” SOHR claimed. “It is worth noting that HTS largely depends on drones during military battles with regime forces, targeting military positions and vehicles.”
Taking a page from what Ukraine has done in its fight against Russia, the rebels have developed their own drone corps.
This video reportedly shows a strike on Assad regime Brigadier General Adi Ghasah, head of the Military Security Branch in Hama. The War Zone cannot verify claims that Ghasah was killed in the attack or that he was even the target.
Meanwhile, the front lines are fluid, causing confusion among HTS troops, including some who thought Hama had already been captured.
As they cemented their hold on Aleppo, rebel fighters took control of Assad’s palace there. As you can see in the following video, the palace was adorned with artwork and fancy furniture.
The city of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest, holds significant strategic, tactical and cultural value and its fall is a huge blow to Assad as historian Kamal Abdo explained in the following video.
Anti-regime forces have taken a large amount of materiel in their advance.
Among the items was a Russian-made Pantsir air defense system.
There are unconfirmed reports that an abandoned Russian-made 9A310M1 Buk SAM launcher, armed with at least one surface-to-air missile, was also captured. If any of these systems work, there are effectors to be found and the anti-regime fighters can find people to operate them, which could increase the risk to Russian and Syrian aviation. Still, sustaining them for any appreciable time would be a challenge.
They also seized large amounts of ammunition.
There were also several aircraft captured as anti-Assad forces took control of airfields. Among those put on display were dilapidated examples, including Syrian Air Force MiG-23 Floggers.
There had been long-standing rumors that Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar sent L-39s Albatross jets to Syria for repairs and pilot training. Images and video emerging on social media show that they were present when the anti-regime forces captured the Neyrab Airbase near Aleppo.
The video below shows the rebels captured a number of L-39s, but it is unclear whether they are operational or were being used for spare parts.
Now that they have captured aircraft, the rebels are trying to figure out what to do with them. In at least one instance, laughing rebels climbed aboard a small propeller plane as it was towed around by a pickup.
In addition to weaponry, rebel forces continue to take regime troops prisoner. This video shows a large number captured near the town of Khanasir, about 30 miles southeast of Aleppo.
A pickup full of Syrian troops trying to escape Aleppo found themselves caught in a rebel ambush. The vehicle was struck at close range by an RPG round and strafed by automatic weapons fire. While the condition of those troops is unclear from the following video, one thing is certain: they did not escape back to their lines.
Other regime forces appeared to have had better luck, escaping in their tanks right past the insurgents.
Meanwhile, officials from Iran, one of Assad’s biggest backers, have vowed to do what they can to prop him up.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran “is ready to improve cooperation with Syria to overcome the ongoing crisis in the Arab country in the wake of the resurgence of terrorism,” Press TV reported on Telegram.
However, at least one Iranian effort to resupply his troops was thwarted by the Israeli Air Force (IAF). IAF jets reportedly forced an Iranian supply plane to leave Syrian airspace and head back to Iran, the Times of Israel reported.
The interception was part of a larger Israeli effort to prevent Iranian weapons from reaching the Lebanese terror group, during a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that has seen multiple violations.
“In recent months, the Israel Defense Forces has forced several Iranian flights to make U-turns over Syrian or Iraqi airspace, after they were suspected of carrying weapons to Hezbollah,” the publication reported.
Visual signs of Iran’s outsized influence on the Assad regime were visible in Aleppo’s Scientific Research Center after being captured by rebels. Among other items, a wall was adorned with a picture of former Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp leader Qassem Soleimani, killed in a January 2020 airstrike in Iraq.
The fight against Assad is one of many battles raging throughout Syria, ripped apart since 2011 by a bloody civil war.
Troops from the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as well as Kurdish militant groups the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Syrian Kurdish YPG are also waging their own campaign against Turkish-backed militants like the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syrian National Army (SNA). Highlighting the complex nature of the Syrian battlespace, SNA has also fought Assad as well as ISIS and HTS. The current clashes between the Kurdish forces and the Turkish-backed groups have spilled over into Aleppo.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said in a statement on Monday that his fighters in northwestern Syria were facing intense attacks on multiple fronts.
The group had tried to establish a “humanitarian corridor” linking Kurdish-held northeastern regions to Tel Rifaat, a strategic area northwest of Aleppo to “protect our people from potential massacres,” Reuters reported.
“However, attacks by armed groups supported by the Turkish occupation have disrupted this corridor,” Abdi said. He added that “our forces continue to resist to protect our people in the Kurdish neighborhoods of Aleppo.”
HTS leaders offered a safe passage for YPG militants in Aleppo to move further north in Syria toward the Turkish border. They also emphasized that their fight is solely against Assad and Iranian militias and reaffirmed that Kurds are part of Syrian society and have the same rights.
SDF troops are being allowed to keep their weapons as they move out to fight the Turkish-backed militants.
While Russia and Iran have promised to back Assad, how much either nation can commit and for how long remain open questions as both are bogged down elsewhere. Russia has accumulated huge losses in its nearly three-year-old, full-on invasion of Ukraine. Iran, meanwhile, saw its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah suffer huge losses in a fight against Israel, which appears to be ongoing despite a ceasefire agreement. Tehran has also contributed a large amount of resources to the Yemeni Houthi rebels in their continuing campaign against Red Sea shipping in support of Hamas’ fight against Israel.
One factor that may work to Assad’s advantage is the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran over the fight in Ukraine. Iran has provided thousands of drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles while Russia has provided Iran with cash and captured U.S. and British weapons. Both nations have significant reasons to want to see the offensive fail, and it is possible they can pool limited resources to make that happen.
For the Russians, two key bases along the Mediterranean Sea are at stake. Assad’s ouster would likely mean Russia loses Khmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia, and their port facilities at Tartus, further to the south. That would be a huge blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin both militarily and prestige-wise. Iran, meanwhile, would suffer the loss of a massive center of gravity abutting its arch-enemy Israel. Should HTS and its allies take over much of Syria, Iran’s ability to ship arms across the border to Hezbollah in Lebanon would be imperiled given the rebel forces’ long fight against that group. Iranian-backed militias in Syria would also be at major risk of being taken off the board.
Amid the fighting, there are behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts to pull Assad away from Iran and place him under the U.S. umbrella.
The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates “have discussed with each other the possibility of lifting sanctions” on Assad “if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Lebanon’s Hezbollah,” Reuters reported, citing five people familiar with the matter.
“The conversations intensified in recent months,” the sources told the news outlet. The effort is “driven by the possible expiry on Dec. 20 of sweeping U.S. sanctions on Syria and by Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s regional network, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Iranian assets in Syria.”
It is highly unlikely that happens. Regardless, even if it does, the idea that Assad would pull the plug on efforts to take back lost territory seems like a reach.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com