Ukraine will likely receive a number of AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) glide munitions in a new $375 million U.S. aid package next week, Politico reported. The unpowered air-to-ground weapon has a range of over 70 miles, depending on flight profile, so it can be launched from outside the range of most enemy’s air defense systems.
JSOWs do not have the reach of air-launched cruise missiles like the U.K.-French Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG it has received, or the German Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles it has long coveted. They also aren’t as capable, long-ranged, hard-hitting, or stealth as the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles Ukraine wants most for its F-16s. However, it still gives Ukraine a weapon that can fire from safer distances at Russian troop concentrations, air defenses, and other targets, and navigate around air defenses to get there. .
In a previous analysis of potential Ukrainian F-16 weapons, we described JSOW as the most likely new advanced weapon Ukraine would receive with its donated F-16 Vipers. You can read our complete report on what could be available for Ukraine’s here.
The analysis continued: “[JSOW] is very well suited for the unique combat environment in Ukraine. It can autonomously glide to its target from over 70 miles away when launched at altitude or over a dozen miles when launched at low altitude. It could be especially useful for target geolocated static/semi-static air defense systems and its imaging infrared sensor it uses for terminal homing is impervious to radio-frequency jamming. It has a very small signature, as well, making it that much harder for Russian air defenses to shoot down.”
JSOW had been delivered in cluster and unitary warhead configurations, with the latter being the focus of production today.
Zelensky is scheduled to visit Washington next week, where he will present his peace plan as well as appeal to the Biden administration to remove restrictions on the use of long-range weapons deep inside Russia.
This package, also likely to include artillery ammunition, rockets and air defense missiles, will be the largest package the U.S. has sent Ukraine since May, Politico noted. It could be the last presidential drawdown of equipment before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. Under authority granted by Congress, the U.S. pulls existing weapons from its stockpiles, and the money is meant to purchase replacement munitions and equipment.
The Pentagon is working with Congress to roll the remaining $5.9 billion left in the presidential drawdown authority (PDA) over to the next fiscal year, spokesman Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said last week in a statement. No deal has been struck yet as lawmakers struggle to come up with a plan to avoid a government shutdown on Oct.1, which will occur if no stopgap funding measure is passed in time.
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Russia lost up to three months’ worth of ammunition during the massive Sept. 18 Ukrainian drone attack on a sprawling storage facility in the country’s west, an Estonian intelligence officer told reporters on Friday.
Ukraine managed to hit the warehouse when part of the ammunition was not completely placed in the bunkers, and that set off a chain of explosions, Ants Kiviselg said, according to the Estonian ERR news outlet. You can see the first moments of the attack in a video posted on Twitter.
About “30,000 tons of ammunition exploded, that is, 750,000 shells,” he claimed. “At the average rate of hostilities, Russia produces 10,000 shells per week. That’s a two- to three-month supply of ammunition.”
“We will see the consequences of this loss at the front in the coming weeks,” he added.
The War Zone cannot independently verify Kiviselg’s assessment.
Toropets suffered widespread damage in the attack, though one analyst suggested the loss of ammunition was likely far less than the numbers posited by Kiviselg.
Data collected by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) showed that the facility was still smoldering days after the attack.
More than 100 long-range attack drones targeted the massive ammunition depot, located in the town of Toropets, around 236 miles northwest of Moscow, and roughly 300 miles north of the border with Ukraine. Much of the town, which has around 13,000 residents, was damaged in the strike.
As we previously noted, the facility reportedly housed numerous warehouses for ballistic missiles, Grad rockets, artillery shells, and other explosives, as well as fuel tanks. In addition, other accounts suggested that that guided bombs, artillery, and S-400 air defense missiles were also stored there.
The head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, said on Telegram that the facility in Toropets was also being used to store ballistic missiles supplied to Russia by North Korea.
The facility was still spewing smoke a day after being attacked, according to this Maxar Technologies satellite image taken Wednesday.
(Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies)
Russia depends heavily on artillery barrages on the front lines and deep-strike missile attacks on Ukrainian cities to prosecute this war. While the Estonian claim of 750,000 artillery shells is certainly a huge number, Russia has received millions of rounds from North Korea. Pyongyang has also supplied Moscow with ballistic missiles, as has Iran, which has also delivered thousands of Shahed drones.
Still, in a war where its troops are consistently overmatched in terms of artillery, facing three-quarters of a million fewer shells would be good news for Ukraine.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces continued to push westward in its Kursk salient but neither side made confirmed advances, according to the latest assessment from the Institute for The Study of War (ISW).
There is visual evidence that Ukraine tried to advance toward the town of Veseloe. That’s located about five miles southwest of Glushkovo, a tactically important city on the Seim River. The idea is to try and create a pincer, catching thousands of Russian troops between Glushkovo and Tetkino, about 13 miles to the west. However, as the last video below shows, the Ukrainian advance came under heavy fire with several vehicles likely destroyed.
Meanwhile, Russia pounded Ukrainian positions in Kursk with glide bombs.
In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces continued to marginally advance southeast of the key logistics hub city of Pokrovsk amid continued fighting east and southeast of the city, according to ISW. Geolocated footage published on September 19 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Mykhailivka (southeast of Pokrovsk and just east of Selydove).
Adding to the challenges Ukraine faces defending Pokrovsk is an inability of disparate units to communicate with each other, frontline troops told the Kyiv Independent.
“With many different units — all in various states of combat effectiveness — deployed to the Pokrovsk front, effective communication between brigades is a crucial factor that is often lacking,” soldiers from two brigades told the publication.
“One officer of the 68th, who asked not to be identified because of the nature of his comments, said that for months over summer, one of the neighboring brigades would consistently fail to report lost positions, leaving his own units vulnerable from the flank without knowing about it,” the Kyiv Independent reported.
“In our area, there are a lot of different units, and communication between them becomes a big problem,” said one of those soldiers.
Russia has diverted about 40,000 troops from eastern Ukraine to help defend its own territory in Kursk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed.
“The Ukrainian Defense Forces have now managed to reduce the assault capabilities of the occupiers in the Donetsk region,” he said in his evening address on Thursday. “The situation remains extremely challenging, with heavy fighting daily in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions. But we are doing everything possible for the resilience of our combat brigades. A separate issue was the operation in the Kursk region. We have already managed to divert around 40,000 Russian troops to this area. Our active operations continue. The “exchange fund” is also being replenished for us, for Ukraine. All these are important factors influencing the overall situation in the war. I thank all our combat brigades, every soldier, sergeant, every commander, for their bravery.”
The shortage of troops is not something just affecting Ukraine.
The issue has become so dire for Russia that its Defense Ministry officials have unsuccessfully pressed President Vladimir Putin for more troops, The Wall Street Journal reported.
“Months before President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration in May, he met with Defense Ministry officials who pushed for a fresh round of mobilization to recruit more troops to offset Russia’s losses on the front line in Ukraine,” the publication reported, citing a person briefed on the exchange.
“Putin dismissed the idea, saying he wanted to use only those who were voluntarily signing military contracts,” the person said. “Forces are currently not sufficient to achieve the original war aims, knock Ukraine out of the war, to undermine its military potential or protect border regions of the Russian territory. More and more people are saying mobilization is inevitable.”
At least four civilians were killed and another 20 injured in a Russian missile and drone barrage on Ukraine, according to Euromaidan Press.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces fired three S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from Russia’s Belgorod region at Kharkiv Oblast, one Kh-59/69 cruise missile from occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and 42 Shahed-type strike drones from the areas of Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Kursk Oblast in Russia.
The Air Force claimed it downed all 42 drones and the cruise missile.
Germany has announced the delivery of additional military aid to Ukraine, including 22 Leopard-1A5 tanks and spare parts, 22 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) armored vehicles and 61,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition from Bundeswehr and industry stocks among other items.
Ukraine has received Indian artillery shells diverted by European customers and Russia is not happy.
New Delhi has not intervened to stop the trade despite protests from Moscow, 11 Indian and European government and defense industry officials told Reuters, which also analyzed commercially available customs data.
The transfers have “occurred for more than a year, according to the sources and the customs data,” the publication reported. “Indian arms export regulations limit the use of weaponry to the declared purchaser, who risks future sales being terminated if unauthorized transfers occur.”
Encountering shrapnel from a successful missile interception is one of the “more plausible” explanations for the mishap that killed Ukrainian F-16 pilot Oleksiy Mes during Russia’s largest aerial barrage of the war late last month, Breaking Defense reported.
Before his F-16 went down, Mes, who went by the call sign “Moonfish,” shot down three Russian cruise missiles and a one-way attack drone, Ukrainian Air Force Command West said on Facebook at the time.
“One scenario floating among the Ukrainian defense community is that the F-16 flew inadvertently through a cloud of debris created by the successful intercept and destruction of one of the incoming Russian missiles,” Breaking Defense reported. “These fragments of the destroyed missile may have caused damage to the engine and other parts of the aircraft, causing the F-16 to break apart and/or the death of the pilot before he could eject.”
This version “is emerging as one of the more plausible scenarios, due to past precedence,” the publication noted, citing Ukrainian defense industry executives. One of them told the outlet that “earlier in the war we lost four other fighters to this same cause of airborne foreign objects disabling the aircraft.”
France plans to upgrade Mirage 2000-5F jets being donated to Ukraine to help the country strike Russian ground targets, according to the SudOuest media outlet.
The aircraft could be delivered with valuable new munitions, including versions of the MICA beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile. The -5F variant is optimized for air-to-air use, but the plan now appears to be using them as ground-attack jets, employing air-to-ground munitions that France has already been sending to Ukraine, such as the stealthy SCALP-EG cruise missile and the Hammer rocket-assisted precision-guided bomb.
The Telegram messaging app has been banned for use on the official devices of Ukrainian government employees, military personnel, security and defense workers and critical infrastructure employees. The ban, announced Friday, was enacted out of national security concerns during the all-out war with Russia.
“During a meeting on Thursday, the Security Service of Ukraine and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Telegram is actively used by Russia for cyberattacks, phishing, spreading malware, establishing user locations and calibrating missile strikes,” The Associated Press reported. “An exception to the ban will be allowed for people who use the app in their official duties. Ukrainians are free to use the app in their personal devices.”
The app is widely used in Ukraine and Russia not only for texting but also for reading news, including updates on Russian air attacks. Telegram is also the primary way Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, engage with the public and relay war developments. Zelensky is likely to continue using Telegram in his public communications since it is in his official capacity, the AP reported.
A Ukrainian uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV) is seen in the following video blasting Russian troops in a Kursk treeline with its 7.62 mm machine gun. The UGV, backed by Ukrainian mortar fire, took a few hits from Russian rocket-propelled grenades and first-person view (FPV) drones but survived and continued the mission. Some of the Russians were reportedly killed and some are seen fleeing.
Ukraine continues to scorch Russian troops with thermite-spewing dragon drones. Below you can watch one attack Russian troops in a treeline somewhere near the town of Lyptsi in Kharkiv Oblast.
In a sign of how first-person view (FPV) drones are becoming harder and harder to avoid, this video shows one zipping into an opening in a treeline and following a path until it finds and impacts with a Russian truck. A second FPV drone follows the same path and comes upon the truck’s burning wreckage.
Putin toured an exhibition of robotic systems supplied by the Defense Ministry and the Popular Front, according to his official website. “In particular, the president was shown tracked platforms, kamikaze drones, reconnaissance systems with an unmanned aerial vehicle, and an exhibit of a loitering munition.”
A Ukrainian military unit is seen in the following video cruising past Zmiinyi Island, better known to the world as Snake Island, captured by Russia on Feb. 24, 2022, the first day of the all-out war. After repeated bombardment by Ukraine forces, Russia evacuated the island on June 30, 2022.
The island was the site of the infamous incident where one of the Ukrainian Border Guards on the island responded to a call to surrender from the Russian Navy cruiser Moskva, then the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship, by saying “Russian warship, go fuck yourself!”
The cruiser was struck by Ukraine and sunk in April 2022.
After blaming Tesla owner Elon Musk for shutting down his Cybertruck, Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov claims he has sent two more to the frontlines.
Kadyrov claimed Thursday that the vehicle, which he said had been kitted out with a machine gun and was “performing well in combat,” CNN reported. He added that he sent two more Cybertrucks to the frontlines.
The Chechen warlord is a Putin loyalist and has had active involvement in Russia’s ongoing full-on war in Ukraine.
The video below shows the two Cybertrucks, sporting captured U.S. M2 Browning machine guns, cruising a wooded area. It is unclear where or when it was taken. We’ve reached out to Tesla for comment.
A Russian Shahed attack drone was shot out of the sky by a Ukrainian Zu-23-2 twin-barreled anti-aircraft autocannon. You can watch it being detected, fired upon, and crashing to Earth, where it exploded in a ball of flames.
The U.K.-based Tekever tech company, which has built intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drones for Ukraine “plans to expand further after creating 30 jobs in mid Wales,” the BBC reported.
“Tekever said it hoped to generate 200 jobs in the UK over the next three years, across its two sites in Aberporth, Ceredigion, and Southampton,” the news outlet reported.
Tekever’s AR3 drone, which the company claims “can fly for up to 16 hours, is built and tested at Parc Aberporth near Cardigan,” according to the BBC. Earlier this year, that drone was featured in a U.K. Defense Ministry announcement that £60m (nearly $80 million) was being spent on new surveillance drones for the Ukrainian army.
A retired Australian Army major general took to Twitter to rail against his country’s decision to auction off used military equipment like long-range patrol vehicles instead of donating them to Ukraine.
“In two separate submissions to the Australian senate this year on Ukraine, I have recommended a single, simple and mandatory step be inserted into Defense disposal policy – ‘All equipment for disposal should first be considered for gifting to Ukraine,’” said Mick Ryan, now a Senior Fellow for Military Studies at the Lowy Institute. “Nil action.”
“If you are embarrassed by the cheapness of the government of the 13th richest nation in the world, please write to your local Federal member,” he added.
New video has emerged from an incursion into Russia by Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU). Its agents say they infiltrated the then-new headquarters of the “Kantemirovskaya division” near Moscow. This “elite” 4th Tank Division of the Russian Federation assaulted Kharkiv in 2022 but was crushed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to former Ukrainian official Anton Gerashchenko. The video is undated, but the snow seen on the ground indicates it was not recent.
The following video shows the intensity of trench warfare, with Ukrainian and Russian troops firing at each other at close range.
Ukraine’s Baba Yaga drones continue to devastate Russian troops. The following video shows the heavy-lift drones bombarding Russian positions.
The large industrial quadcopter drones have been nicknamed by the Russians “Baba Yagas” (a reference to the ferocious old woman who eats children in Slavic folklore).
Add the Pantsir-S1 air defense system to the list of equipment Russia has turtled up. The image below shows a Pantsir with sheets of metal MacGuyvered onto its sides and rear. Given that attacks on these weapons systems usually strike the top, how much protection this will provide is dubious.
And finally, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry published a video incorporating the firing of HIMARS and howitzers with an orchestral performance of classical music.
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com