Russia is stepping up its pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, after launching its counteroffensive there last week. It’s now reported that as many as 38,000 Russian troops have been committed to the operation, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been forced to defend the incursion — which began in August — against mounting criticism.
A report in The Financial Times cites a senior Ukrainian military intelligence official who assessed the number of Russian soldiers now involved in the counteroffensive, with some of these having been redeployed from southern Ukraine. Despite this, the same source says that the counterattack is “still not large-scale,” and Russia will need to introduce more of its combat-proven assault brigades before making more significant gains. In the past, Zelensky has mentioned 100,000 Russian troops being required to fully repulse the incursion.
Overall, though, there are fears that the initiative could begin to swing in the Kremlin’s favor, with some now also questioning the objectives of the Ukrainian incursion, which achieved initial surprise and saw a large swath of Russia’s Kursk region taken by Kyiv’s troops.
Around 460 square miles of territory were seized in the Ukrainian operation, which began on August 6.
At this point, the biggest worry for Ukrainian commanders is very likely the fact that Russia has, so far, not diverted substantial forces away from the east of Ukraine, where Kyiv’s troops remain under significant pressure and continue to lose ground.
In particular, the area around Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, which is home to a major railway hub, has seen an uptick in Russian attacks.
Kyiv hopes that holding onto the territory long-term would have provided a powerful bargaining chip in any future peace negotiations with Moscow, but the present situation on the ground in the Kursk region is disputed.
Russian officials said that the counteroffensive launched last week quickly led to around 24 square miles of territory being recaptured, primarily on the left flank of the area occupied by Kyiv’s troops.
Meanwhile, the Deepstate military analysis outlet, which has close links with the Ukrainian military, reports that Ukrainian troops are still pushing toward the north. Other reports claim that the Ukrainians are also making advances in the Russians’ rear, which could even threaten to trap them in a pocket against the Seym River.
Elsewhere, there are accounts that Ukrainian troops have advanced around 2.5 miles in the Glushkovo direction of the Kursk region, destroying a Russian motorized rifle brigade in the process.
A video from the Glushkovo direction would seem to support claims that Russian forces sustained heavy losses here.
“Our military is holding on heroically and doing everything necessary for our other military-political steps,” Zelensky said on Friday, admitting that Russian forces had “started their rapid offensive actions.”
Among the videos purporting to show Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region is the following example, showing destroyed Stryker 8×8 armored fighting vehicles close to the Ukrainian border. Reportedly, first-person view (FPV) drones were responsible for inflicting these losses.
In the video below, German Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding provides his latest assessment of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, as well as commenting on the continued discussions around the use of standoff weapons on Russian territory.
One of the signature weapons from early on in the conflict was the U.S.-made FGM-148 Javelin anti-armor missile, which is apparently very much still in evidence in the Kursk region. This footage claims to show the destruction of a Russian tank in the Kursk region, the Javelin leading to a rapid ammunition ‘cook-off’ followed by a ‘turret toss.’
The next video, apparently recorded by a Ukrainian Shark surveillance drone, shows the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, located on the bank of the Seym River. It is one of the three biggest nuclear power plants in Russia and one of its most important electricity producers. The International Atomic Energy Agency has urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise maximum restraint to avoid an accident at the plant amid ongoing fighting in the region.
Last in this latest round-up of videos from the Kursk region shows the impact of what is said to be a U.S.-supplied GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDB), which is dropped straight through the roof of a Russian-occupied building, destroying it. In this conflict, the SDB is best associated with the Ukrainian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter, which uses a special pylon to hang the four-bomb SDB racks under its wing.
Without a doubt, the Ukrainian push into Russia was a daring gamble and one that initially seemed to pay off. But it remains to be seen whether Kyiv is able to sustain its gains, especially with Russia seemingly happy to play the long game to claw back its territory.
The Latest
In an interview with CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Western military aid provided so far is not enough to equip “even four out of 14” brigades that the country “needs to be ready.”
Zelensky didn’t provide details of where exactly those brigades are needed but did point to the adverse effect of the eight-month pause in deliveries of Western aid and how it has contributed to Russian progress. The Ukrainian president also reflected on the fact that despite more arms deliveries being approved, including a major U.S. package back in April, these have so far been slow to arrive.
“We moved [to use] what we had in storage, and whatever the reserve brigades had — [those brigades that] we need now [to fight],” Zelensky added. Of the brigades now fighting to defend the east of Ukraine, the Ukrainian leader said that “half of them” are not fully equipped.
Once again, shortages of ammunition are being especially keenly felt, Zelensky said, and more armored vehicles are also needed. In terms of the ammunition deficit, Zelensky claimed that the Russians are currently firing 12 times as many rounds as the Ukrainian troops.
There are growing reports that Russia hopes to achieve a decisive victory in the war by the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026.
This is being driven by concerns that the Russian economy will start to face serious problems starting in the summer of 2025.
In its recent analysis of the strategic situation, U.S.-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) argues that “Russia will likely face growing challenges in the production and procurement of the materiel that Russian operations in Ukraine require, and the Kremlin will likely become increasingly reliant on foreign partners to meet its materiel needs.”
In particular, these economic issues are expected to lead to “likely medium- to long-term economic and force generation constraints” that would “begin to significantly degrade Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, has said “They [Russia] predict that around the summer of 2025, the negative impact on the economy will be very noticeable for their country.”
Another factor around the same time period will be insufficient recruitment and the problem of whether the Kremlin decides to announce full mobilization, or otherwise reduce the intensity of its operations.
While Ukraine is still hampered by Western allies’ resistance to strikes deep into Russian territory using weapons they have supplied, Kyrylo Budanov recently claimed that long-range drone attacks have had a significant impact on Russian citizens’ view of their country’s security.
Budanov said that Russians’ faith in their country’s military power and ability to defend itself had been “broken” by the long-range strikes, which have made use of drones developed and built in Ukraine.
Speaking in Kyiv, Budanov said the strikes have had a “serious effect on the social-psychological situation” and that this was “the main achievement of all these deep strikes.”
At the same summit in Kyiv, Budanov gave his opinion on North Korea’s delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia, something that you can read more about here.
Budanov placed North Korea at the top of the list of countries that provided the most military support to Russia, saying that “North Korea would be first, then there is no one for a long time, and then everyone else.”
However, Budanov noted that the ballistic missile threat is still primarily provided by weapons of Russian manufacture, noting that the country has significantly increased its production of Iskander ballistic missiles, as well as guided glide bombs.
Budanov said that the recent uptick in Iskander missile production had been “massive,” while the manufacture of guided bombs had been increased “by several times.”
After F-16s, Vipers of another kind could be headed to Ukraine, meeting another longstanding requirement.
A dozen AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters that Slovakia planned to buy might eventually end up in Ukraine if officials in Kyiv get their way.
Back in July, the U.S. State Department approved the sale of 12 AH-1Zs to Slovakia, at a cost of around $600 million. With this price tag significantly greater than Slovakia was originally offered, the deal is now in question.
Speaking to Defense News, Vadym Ivchenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker for the Batkivshchyna party, said that Ukraine is interested in acquiring the attack helicopters and that the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has filed a letter of request to Washington.
“We need these helicopters for our soldiers who are fighting on the front line in the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and other regions but also leading an operation in the Kursk region,” Ivchenko said.
To battlefields in Ukraine next, and two videos showing some recent victories by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, starting in the Donetsk region, specifically close to the city of Pokrovsk. Footage from here purports to show a massed Russian attack in which columns of vehicles come under attack from Ukrainian FPV drones.
The second video shows another massed Russian armored attack grinding to an apparent halt. In this case, the Ukrainian Armed Forces report that, from an assault force of 46 Russian armored vehicles, 26 of them, including 20 infantry fighting vehicles, were knocked out by troops from the 46th Airmobile Brigade, part of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces.
Local reports from the Russian-occupied Chernihiv district in Ukraine’s southeastern Zaporizhzhia region describe a Ukrainian attack against a freight train loaded with fuel tanks, as seen in the video below. According to Russian emergency officials, three of the fuel tanks were completely destroyed.
The next video shows action from northeast Ukraine, with a Ukrainian attack — said to involve the 3rd Assault Brigade — on Russian positions in the Kharkiv region. Using drones to adjust fire, they successfully targeted and eliminated a group of Russian soldiers.
One of the Ukrainian Air Force’s Su-24M Fencer strike aircraft has received some eye-catching artwork, apparently applied during an overhaul that included a respray of the entire aircraft, including dark gray upper services and blue and yellow panels to aid identification by Ukrainian air defense operators. Most striking is the dragon nose art, while combat markings on the nose represent at least 40 operational sorties.
The operating unit is the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade and these aircraft have risen to prominence as launch platforms for the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG conventional cruise missiles.
Viewer discretion is advised for the next video, documenting the demise of a Russian soldier as he is blown out of the water, perhaps having entered it in an attempt to evade being targeted by Ukrainian forces.
With thermite-spewing ‘dragon drones’ now in use with both sides in the conflict, more videos have emerged showing these adapted unmanned aerial vehicles operating over troops, especially those taking cover in treelines and trenches.
The next video purports to show Russian infantry hiding out in a forest as they attempt to shoot down a Ukrainian ‘dragon drone’ working above them.
Reports emerged last week of a Ukrainian attempt to capture the Krym-2 oil platform in the Black Sea, an incident which apparently led to the shootdown of a Russian Navy Su-30SM Flanker fighter.
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, or GUR has now published a full video of the raid on the Krym-2 platform, which took place on. September 11. According to the GUR, around 14 landing craft were involved in the operation.
In related news, the “Ukrainian SEALs” of the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are the focus of a recent article in The Times of London. The report describes some of the high-profile reconnaissance and sabotage operations by the elite divers, some of whom have been trained by the United States and the United Kingdom.
More activity in the Black Sea next, with footage of a Ukrainian Navy Gyurza-M class gunboat engaging a Russian Shahed-136 one-way attack drone using its Katran-M close-in weapon system. The Russian drone is seen exploding before crashing into the sea.
Derived from a weapons turret used on armored vehicles, the BM-5M.01 Katran-M can be fitted with a 30mm automatic gun, a 30mm automatic grenade launcher, and a 7.62mm machine gun, as well as two Barrier anti-tank missiles.
There are reports of significant Russian electronic warfare activities in the Black Sea, specifically using jamming to target GPS. The source of the jamming is apparently off of the major Russian naval base at Novorossiysk, with the effect of the disruption seen in automatic identification system (AIS) transmissions from ships in the vicinity. It seems that the jammer itself is installed on a marker buoy outside the naval base.
Other recent news out of Novorossiysk suggests that the Russian Navy may have evacuated vessels belonging to the Black Sea Fleet from the port, perhaps in anticipation of Ukraine’s Western allies finally permitting the long-range weapons they have supplied to be used against targets deep inside Russia.
Wild Hornets, the Ukrainian volunteer organization that produces small, FPV drones for the Ukrainian military, claims that it has developed a high-speed unmanned aerial vehicle in this class that has attained a speed of 325 kilometers per hour — 202 miles per hour. The group says this is the fastest speed yet recorded by any of its drones, which have already been used to significant effect in combat. This can be especially useful for running-down and destroying other drones.
Reports suggest that Ukraine is now better able to help meet its troops’ massive demands for NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells. Having previously relied on foreign sources for this ammunition, production of these munitions is now taking place locally, according to Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin.
“This is a very complicated process. This is something that Ukraine has never done before,” Kamyshin said, adding that he “can’t say much” on the matter.
NATO-standard ammunition of a very different caliber is the subject of the next story and reports that Canada is to provide Ukraine with World War II-era Browning Hi-Power pistols. A total of 10,500 of the 9mm pistols that were previously used by the Canadian Armed Forces, and which were slated for destruction, will instead be sent to Ukraine. Deliveries are due to begin in December. In Canadian service, the Hi-Power was replaced by the Sig Sauer P320.
Canada also plans to send to Ukraine 970 examples of the C6 machine gun — the Canadian designation for the popular Belgium FN MAG.
Far from the battlefields of Ukraine and Kursk, meanwhile, Ukrainian special forces are reportedly taking the fight to Russian forces, with a raid on one of their drone bases in Syria. According to The Kyiv Post, the attack was made by special forces from the Khimik group, part of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR). The Russian base, near Aleppo, is said to have been attacked on September 15. The same source shares a video of the operation, including an explosion after an ammunition dump comes under fire.
That’s it until the next update or news breaks.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com