We are now getting details about the weapon used in the unprecedented attack on Ukraine earlier today, with Russian President Vladimir Putin saying his country’s forces fired a previously unknown medium-range “hypersonic” missile called Oreshnik. The new design is based on the previous RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile, according to the Pentagon. Readers can get up to speed on what else is already known about the missile strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro in The War Zone‘s initial reporting here.
Ukrainain authorities had initially claimed that the weapon Russia fired today was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Subsequent reports citing anonymous U.S. government officials have said that it was actually a medium or intermediate-range ballistic missile (MRBM/IRBM). The RS-26 is officially categorized as an ICBM, but experts have long assessed that it is more likely an IRBM. MRBMs, IRBMs, and ICBMs are categorized by their maximum ranges – between 620 and 1,860 miles (1,000 and 3,000 kilometers), between 1,864 and 3,418 miles (3,000 to 5,500 kilometers), and greater than 3,418 miles (5,500 kilometers), respectively.
“In response to the use of American and British weaponry on November 21 this year, Russian armed forces conducted a combined strike on one of Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex facilities,” Putin said in a televised address. “This included testing one of Russia’s latest medium-range missile systems in combat conditions. In this case, a ballistic missile equipped with non-nuclear hypersonic technology, referred to as Oreshnik by our missile forces.”
“Targets for engagement during further testing of our newest missile complexes will be determined based on threats to the security of the Russian Federation,” he added. “When selecting targets for such systems as Oreshnik on Ukrainian territory, we will ensure that civilians, as well as citizens of friendly nations present in those areas, are advised to leave potential danger zones in advance. This will be done openly, publicly, and out of humanitarian considerations, without fear of opposition from the enemy.”
In his remarks, Putin said that Oreshnik (which means “hazel” in Russian, keeping with the country’s tradition of naming ballistic missiles after trees) had a peak speed of Mach 10, but provided no other details about the weapon. He also made no mention of any connection to the RS-26, work on which was publicly shelved in 2018.
Imagery from today’s attack on Ukraine looks to show six warheads descending on the target and multiple resulting impacts.
“I can confirm that Russia did launch an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said at a routine press conference today. “This IRBM was based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile model”
Singh added that the U.S. government had been notified about the launch beforehand through Nuclear Risk Reduction channels. We raised this very real possibility in our initial report. This contradicts separate remarks from Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Putin, who said today that Russia has no obligation to make such notification for launches of medium-range weapons.
“Russia launched an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile against Ukraine,” another U.S. government official also told The War Zone directly. “While we take all threats against Ukraine seriously, it is important to keep a few key facts in mind. Russia likely possesses only a handful of these experimental missiles.”
The RS-26 is itself reportedly a smaller derivative of the RS-24 Yars ICBM. Rubezh is also understood to have a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) configuration and was associated in the past with the development of the Avangard hypersonic boost-glide vehicle. Russia has publicly fielded Avangard in a silo-based configuration using a repurposed ICBM rocketed booster. Hypersonic boost-glide vehicles offer capabilities that are particularly hard to defend against, as you can read more about here.
The video below shows an Avangard test in 2018.
Whether Oreshnik carries standard re-entry vehicles, maneuvering ones, or true hypersonic boost-glide vehicles remains unknown. Larger ballistic missiles and their payloads, in general, typically reach hypersonic speeds.
A picture said to show a piece of the Oreshnik after the attack looks to be a part that is also found in the Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile and that is linked to the production of components for other Russian strategic ballistic missiles.
Regardless of its exact configuration and capabilities, Russia’s use of Oreshnik is also just the latest example of the country using the conflict in Ukraine as an opportunity to demonstrate new and advanced weapon systems. The war has already seen the first operational use of the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile and the sea-launched Zircon air-breathing hypersonic cruise missile
In addition, the introduction of a new ostensibly hypersonic weapon comes amid continued efforts to bolster Ukraine’s air and missile defenses. Western-supplied Patriot surface-to-air missile systems have been notably effective against Kinzhal, as well as ground-launched ballistic missiles. At a peak speed of Mach 10, Oreshnik would be moving faster than a system like Patriot can reliably intercept.
“Existing modern air defense systems worldwide, including the missile defense systems created by Americans in Europe, cannot intercept such missiles. It’s impossible,” Putin explicitly boasted in his announcement about Oreshnik today.
Using an experimental and expensive capability like Oreshnik, which also likely has lower accuracy in its conventional mode than existing long-range munitions that Russia has been using on Ukraine, is also clearly intended to send broader messages to Ukraine’s foreign benefactors. Putin has not explicitly said it was in retaliation for Ukraine getting approval to employ U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles and British-supplied Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles against targets in Russia.
“Ukraine has withstood countless attacks from Russia, including from missiles with significantly larger warheads than this weapon. Let me be clear: Russia may be seeking to use this capability to try to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters, or generate attention in the information space, but it will not be a game-changer in this conflict,” the aforementioned U.S. government official told The War Zone. “We briefed Ukraine and close allies/partners in recent days about Russia’s possible use of this weapon to help them prepare.”
“As the President announced earlier this year, the United States is providing Ukraine with hundreds of additional Patriot and AMRAAM missiles to strengthen its air defenses. Many of these air defense missiles have been delivered already, as a consequence of the President’s decision to divert air defense exports to Ukraine, and deliveries of additional air defense missiles to Ukraine are ongoing,” they continued. “And, as the President directed in September, the United States will continue to surge security assistance to Ukraine to strengthen capabilities, including air defense, and put Ukraine in the best possible position on the battlefield. Just yesterday, we announced another security assistance package and those efforts will continue until the end of the President’s term.”
With Putin’s threat to continue employing Oreshniks, more information about the missile and its RS-26 predecessor may now start to emerge.
UPDATE: 7:45 PM EST —
The War Zone has now published a deeper dive into the story of the RS-26, which you can read here.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com