Surrounded by more than seven miles of coastline and sitting just 14 feet above sea level at its highest elevation, MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida juts out into Hillsborough Bay like a uvula. Given its location, longstanding concerns exist that a major hurricane could swamp the headquarters of U.S. Central Command, U.S. Special Operations Command and dozens of other base tenant units.
Now Hurricane Milton is storming its way toward Florida’s west coast, expected to make landfall south of Tampa as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of up to 160 miles per hour. Two weeks after suffering damage from Hurricane Helene, MacDill officials are preparing for what could be storm effects unlike anything this base has seen in its 83 years of operations.
Even though Helene made landfall in Perry, Florida, about 160 miles north of MacDill, the base saw a record-breaking storm surge of seven feet, nine inches, a spokesperson for the 6th Air Refueling Wing (ARW), the base host unit, told The War Zone. The latest forecast as of Noon Eastern time Wednesday shows Milton, a massive hurricane, striking Sarasota, about 35 miles south of the base.
“We are anticipating a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet,” 2nd Lt. Laura Anderson told The War Zone Wednesday morning.
The base, however, is still within the cone of uncertainty, meaning that Milton could still strike it directly or come very close. That would be devastating to the entire Tampa Bay region with a population of more than 3.3 million people and put most of MacDill under water.
“Approximately 93% of MacDill AFB is within the 100-year floodplain,” according to a 2022 base resource management plan. “Tropical storms typically flood much of the southern and northwestern portions of MacDill, and all of the base proper would be flooded by a Category 3 or greater hurricane.”
Anticipating MacDill could be hit hard, Col. Ed Szczepanik, the installation commander, ordered a mandatory evacuation of the base on Oct. 7, effective by Oct. 8.
The base has 26 KC-135 Stratotankers flown by the 6th ARW and the 927 ARW. All that were able to fly left for McConnell Air Force Base in Wichita Kansas. There are also Black Hawk helicopters from an Army Reserve unit that have evacuated as well. The 20,000 people who work on MacDill as well as the residents of nearly 600 homes were ordered to leave the base.
All this is taking place as turmoil roils CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. Israel has promised to launch a retaliation attack on Iran. It is also fighting Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, who have waged a nearly year-long campaign attacking shipping in the Red Sea region.
“We are maintaining 24-7 operations working out of alternative sites,” CENTCOM spokesman Lt. Col. John Rigsbee told The War Zone.
Opened in 2011, CENTCOM’s headquarters is one of the newest buildings on MacDill. It was constructed to withstand hurricane-force winds and rising water.
“We are preparing for the worst,” Rigsbee explained. “We won’t know until we see the full extent of damage, but we are fully prepared to continue operations even if systems at headquarters are down. There are plans in place to maintain operations. We are not going down and it won’t take too much time to return.”
In the meantime, CENTCOM personnel are working out of several locations, including Raymond James Stadium and Homestead Air Reserve Base near Miami, where the Joint Operations Center will be set up, a U.S. defense official told The War Zone.
SOCOM “dispersed to three different locations,” Col. Alexandra Weiskopf, the command spokesperson, told The War Zone. “With our Washington D.C. office, we will have comms up in four different locations and there will be no degradation to our continuity of operations.”
MacDill being devastated by a hurricane is something “we always thought was a possibility,” retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel, who ran both commands, told us. “There was a plan to use Raymond James in the event of a serious issue at MacDill. I always thought SOCOM headquarters was very vulnerable – but CENTCOM headquarters was built with a hurricane in mind.”
The SOCOM building “was old and only two stories,” Votel explained. “Power sources and data centers were largely at ground level.”
As for concerns about the base being so badly damaged, that it would remain unusable, Votel said he didn’t ”recall any discussions about never coming back – we may have lacked imagination.”
The 6th ARW will have a 185-member hurricane recovery team at Raymond James Stadium ready to assess any damage as soon as it is safe enough, Capt. Kaitlin Butler, a wing spokesperson, told us.
Meanwhile, the base is still in the last throes of post-Helene cleanup.
“The biggest problems with Helene were storm surge and power outages,” Butler said. There was some flooding affecting the water treatment facility, she added, but for the most part, full base operations were quickly restored.
A direct or close hit could be a different story.
The Defense Department is spending nearly $5 billion to rebuild Tyndall Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle, which was directly in the path of Category 5 Hurricane Michael on Oct. 10, 2018. Most of that damage was caused by the winds blowing in at 160 miles per hour. Aircraft that were left behind faced damage or destruction.
There are other military installations in Florida preparing to deal with Milton, including those on Florida’s east coast, near where Milton could cross over.
“Space Launch Delta 45 is monitoring Hurricane Milton and will continue making preparations as weather dictates,” spokeswoman Maggie Nave told us. “Patrick Space Force Base and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station have entered [hurricane preparation] HURCON status, which will be adjusted based on the anticipated timing of storm impacts. At this time, tenant units have moved aircraft assets out of the local area.”
Naval Station Mayport has sent three Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers underway, while those vessels unable to leave are being placed on heavy moorings, spokesman David Holmes told us. The station has shut down operations and only essential mission personnel are allowed in.
Naval Air Station Jacksonville is being closed for two days, with personnel slated to come back as early as Friday depending on what happens, spokesperson Kaylee Larocque told us.
In addition “26 U.S. Navy MH-60R Seahawks and approximately 200 personnel from Naval Station Mayport and Naval Air Station Jacksonville, Florida relocated to Maxwell Air Force Base in preparation for Hurricane Milton,” according to officials there.
The preparations being made for Hurricane Milton are another stark reminder of how climate is affecting the military, especially in locations like Florida prone to these natural disasters
While there are no plans to shutter places like MacDill and Tyndall, the cost to keep them operational in the face of major hurricanes like Milton will only rise.
Contact the author: hwoard@thewarzone.com