The U.S. Air Force’s still evolving requirements for a next-generation aerial refueling ‘system of systems,’ including a possible stealth tanker, will directly impact the service’s reassessment of plans for a new sixth-generation stealth ‘fighter.’ The Next-Generation Air-Refueling System (NGAS) effort will also inform work on a second tranche of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones. This comes amid broader and still growing questions about how the Air Force expects to achieve and maintain air superiority and refuel aircraft in flight, especially in and around highly contested environments in future major conflicts like one in the Pacific against China.
Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall provides brief updates on NGAS and the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative during a keynote address today at the Air & Space Forces Association’s (AFA) main annual conference just outside Washington, D.C. The overall NGAD effort currently includes the development of a crewed sixth-generation combat jet and the CCA drones, as well as a host of other related technologies, including new weapons, sensors, networking and battle management suites, and advanced jet engines. Work on an initial tranche of CCA drones, also known as Increment 1, is ongoing now, while requirements for a follow-on Increment 2 are being refined. The Air Force also confirmed in July that the NGAD combat jet program had been put on hold so that the service could take a deep look at the very core of what it wants out of that aircraft, as you can read more about here.
“During my tenure, we’ve gone through an evolution in our strategy to recapitalize the tanker fleet,” Kendall said today. “The threat is now reaching out to longer and longer ranges. That puts both tanker and transport aircraft at risk over ever-increasing ranges. This is a particular problem for aerial refueling fighters within their combat radius ranges. “
The Air Force’s current plan to modernize its aerial refueling fleets is to proceed with the planned acquisition of at least 179 Boeing KC-46 Pegasuses and 75 additional tankers in a traditional configuration. The latter aircraft are increasingly expected to just be more examples of the KC-46, a design that continues to be beset by major technical issues. Those acquisitions would then be followed by the NGAS family of systems, which could include a new crewed stealth tanker, uncrewed aerial refueling platforms, and/or other novel capabilities. Kendall has previously said that new more survivable aerial refuelers are not just desirable, but critical for succeeding future conflicts. The Air Force has previously stated a goal of having elements of NGAS start to enter service no later than 2040, if not well before then. In the meantime, the Air Force is already on the verge of retiring its entire fleet of KC-10 tankers and has been divesting KC-135s, as well. KC-135s, KC-10s, and KC-46s make up the service’s current aerial refueling force.
“Almost two years ago, we started an Analysis of Alternatives, what we now call NGAS, the Next-Generation Air-Refueling System,” Kendall continued in his keynote. “We are about to complete that analysis, and we are folding that work into our reconsideration of both the NGAD [combat jet] platform and the next increment of CCAs.”
The Air Force has previously raised the possibility of adding aerial refueling capability to one or more tranches of CCAs, primarily as a way to increase the range of those drones. The War Zone has highlighted in the past how this, in turn, points to a desire for greater performance and/or payload capabilities, and the potential for greater-than-expected unit costs.
“Late last week, we issued an RFI [request for information] to industry seeking input on mission systems for NGAS and potentially for the rest of the tanker fleet, as well. This is the first step in establishing competitive vendor pools that will evaluate and enable new approaches to refueling the joint force,” the Air Force Secretary added. “Our intent is to have simultaneous … answers about the design concepts for NGAS, NGAD, and CCA Increment Two over the next few months.”
The existence of NGAS has already been a clear reflection of the fact that existing non-stealth tankers would already face serious challenges getting anywhere near the tactical edge in a high-end fight, such as one with China in the Pacific. At the same time, the U.S. military’s current tactical combat jet fleets are designed around the expectation that close proximity aerial refueling support will be readily available. Fuel-hungry stealth fighters like the F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter that would be operating out in front in higher-risk areas have added limitations when it comes to carrying additional fuel in draggy external drop tanks that would negatively impact their radar-evading capabilities. Stealthy drop tanks are now in development for the F-22 and have at least been proposed for the F-35 family in the past.
In addition, the distributed and dispersed concepts of operation that will be key to the survival of friendly air power in a major conflict scenario will demand that tankers of any kind operate very far forward. Larger aerial refuelers will also be limited in what forward bases they can operate from.
As already noted, NGAS is a family of systems concept that is expected to include multiple tiers of capabilities that could be employed in a hub-and-spoke manner, with larger tankers operating further away from threats offloading fuel into smaller and more survivable platforms.
Boeing is notably set to formally unveil a proposed Land-Based Variant (LBV) of the MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone it is developing for the U.S. Navy at the AFA conference, a development that Aviation Week was to first report. The company says work on this design, which has a longer overall wingspan and the ability to carry more fuel compared to the naval MQ-25 configuration, has been funded internally and is not officially tied to NGAS, at least as of yet.
The Air Force also just recently awarded two contracts for work on new ‘buddy store’ podded aerial refueling systems that can offload fuel to aircraft that use the boom method. The pods could give the service’s tactical jet fleets and other crewed and uncrewed aircraft the ability to turn into small, but still valuable organic tankers for forward-deployed forces. You can read more about what is known about the Small Hybrid Aerial Refueling Kit (SHARK) project here.
In the meantime, questions about the complexities and costs of developing and fielding a fleet of new crewed stealth tankers are emerging. “I haven’t heard anybody recently tell me that they think that’s remotely achievable within the timeframe and the budget,” an unnamed industry executive said, according to a report last week from Defense One.
“I will say that we are still looking at our existing capabilities with what we have for air refueling, but looking for ways to be more agile with that,” Gen. Kevin Schneider, head of Pacific Air Forces (PACAF), also said in response to a question from The War Zone at a separate media roundtable on the sidelines of the AFA conference today. “We continue to expand Agile Combat Employment [concepts of operations] to find ways that we can move into austere airfields, you know, to disaggregate our force for survivability [and] re-aggregate it for lethality.”
“Getting gas into airplanes is a key piece of that.” the Air Force’s top commander in the Pacific continued. “[But] in terms of changing how we put gas into airplanes in the air, we’re not going down that road yet.”
Gen. Schneider also noted that his command was looking at “being more creative” in how it gets gas into aircraft on the ground, but did not elaborate. He differed on further questions about aerial refueling to Air Mobility Command (AMC), which oversees the bulk of the Air Force’s tanker fleets.
The Air Force’s plans for the crewed NGAD combat jet have been facing similarly increased scrutiny over cost for months now.
“As I expect everyone here knows, we are re-evaluating the NGAD [combat jet] platform design concept. The initial impetus for this was a concern over the affordability of total program cost and high unit cost,” Secretary Kendall reiterated today. “As the Air Force operational committee looked at the design concept, which is essentially an F-22 replacement, concerns expanded to include the cost-effectiveness of the operational concept, the implications of changes in the threat, the evolving nature of the most stressing operational environments and scenarios we have to plan for, and the maturation of technology, including the introduction of CCAs.”
Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach, head of Air Combat Command, said in July that the Air Force currently has no formal replacement plan for the F-22 Raptor stealth fighter. The Raptors are in the process of receiving significant sensor and other upgrades, as well.
“We plan to move quickly to conduct the assessment for a variety of reasons, including industrial base impacts and the fact that both the FY25 and FY26 [Fiscal Years 2025 and 2026] budgets still have to be finalized,” Kendall continued. “But if I were going to make a change in the NGAD platform’s requirements, now is the time to do so before the next major contractual commitment and the commitment to proceed towards production.”
In terms of potential industrial base impacts, competing NGAD combat jet designs from Lockheed Martin and Boeing are already understood to be in development. Northrop Grumman publicly withdrew from the competition voluntarily last year, but has said more recently that it could seek to jump back in depending on what revised requirements look like in the end. In the past at least, the expected NGAD combat jet contract looked set to be a major windfall for the winner and its associated supplier base.
Tying plans for the NGAD ‘fighter’ now directly to expectations about future aerial refueling capabilities can only raise new questions about what the future might hold for the program. Kendall has previously left the door open for a dramatic shift in requirements, including a reduction in emphasis or even elimination of the demand for the design to be crewed. The Secretary has also previously said he was “absolutely confident” that work on a crewed sixth-generation combat jet of some kind would move forward, but his choice of language in this regard has been steadily evolving.
How larger stealth tankers fit into the NGAS equation could have particularly significant impacts on the NGAD combat jet requirements. The new sixth-generation stealth aircraft could carry less gas, and be smaller and less expensive, as well as have higher performance, if aerial refueling support could be more assured in higher-risk areas. There would still be trade-offs and risks, as The War Zone has highlighted in analyzing the growing need for stealthy aerial refueling platforms in detail in the past.
“One thing I would like to make very clear: we are not walking away from the core United States Air Force function of providing air superiority. I’ll say that again, we are not walking away from the core United States Air Force function of providing your superiority,” Kendall said today to great applause from the audience. “We are looking at what we need in order to achieve our superiority in a manner consistent with the increased threat, the changing character of war, and [in] the most cost and combat-effective way.”
A direct link between NGAS and CCA Increment 2 could also have major impacts on the latter effort.
“So what should Increment 2 be? Do not assume and it may not be just an evolution of Increment 1. It could be an entirely different set of missions. Could be [an] entirely different kind of an aircraft,” Andrew Hunter, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics, said at the 2024 Defense News Conference earlier this month. “And so part of that initial work is, again, starting with a large vendor pool, what are the good ideas out there? We’ll have some ideas [about] what we think Increment 2 needs to do as part of a broader force, and that’s part of this broader look at air dominance and how we’re going to deliver that.”
The Air Force is still voicing a clear commitment to the broader NGAS and NGAD initiatives no matter how they might evolve going forward. Questions about how aerial refueling support will be provided in high-end conflicts are also now clearly emerging as a central factor in the service’s planning for the future.
“We have a strong sense of urgency here. Our analysis must be adequate to support major decisions and to help us align our requirements, our acquisition strategies, and funding for these three programs,” Kendall said in his keynote, referring to NGAS, the NGAD combat jet, and CCA. “Stand by for answers in the next few months.”
Howard Altman contributed to this story.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com